HI All
It is not clear from the abstract of Irvine's paper whether the SRM is
stratospheric or tropospheric.
I would be greatly alarmed about any technology which was irreversible.
Failures in electricity generation would cause termination shock after
seconds. The internet and air traffic control in minutes, water
purification in hours, food distribution in a day or two. These possible
termination shocks did not prevent the deployment of useful technology.
Stephen
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design. School of Engineering,
University of Edinburgh, Mayfield Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Scotland
[email protected], Tel +44 (0)131 650 5704, Cell 07795 203 195,
WWW.homepages.ed.ac.uk/shs, YouTube Jamie Taylor Power for Change
On 29/07/2015 23:11, Andrew Lockley wrote:
Poster's note : other, recent research by the author finds the
likelihood of SRM termination to be low
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.4810I
Initial Climate Response to a Termination Shock
Irvine, Peter
Affiliation:
AA([email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>)
EGU General Assembly 2015
04/2015
Abstract
The risk of the termination of a deployment of solar radiation
management (SRM) geoengineering has been raised as one of the key
concerns about these ideas. Early studies demonstrated that a rapid
warming of the climate would follow such a termination with global
mean temperatures rapidly rising towards the levels that would have
been expected in the absence of SRM geoengineering. Further work has
noted the contrasting timescale of the adjustment of global mean
temperature and sea-level rise, with sea-levels responding much slower
and not reaching the same levels as would have been the case in the
absence of SRM geoengineering. Whilst these previous studies have
shown the basics of the response to a termination of SRM, a detailed
analysis of the climate response in the first months or years of a
termination has not been investigated. To conduct such an analysis
tens of simulations with a termination of SRM are conducted, starting
from the end of a G1 simulation with the HadCM3 model. The termination
is initiated in Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter to investigate
whether the response depends on the season. Analyzing these results I
find some novel dynamic responses in the initial months and years
following a termination of SRM which have not been seen in previous
studies which employed decadal-scale averages. These include: A
reduction in the global-scale hydrological cycle's intensity in the
first weeks following termination, counter to the longer-term
increase; An almost instantaneous adjustment of land-mean
precipitation to the equilibrium value; And substantial shifts in the
pattern of precipitation in the initial years that are distinct from
those seen in the equilibrium response and which are characterized by
large increases in terrestrial precipitation and runoff in many regions.
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