Poster's note : I thought I'd posted this but I can't find it. It's an interesting economic analysis of moral hazard. (NB the claim about SRM not affecting carbon cycle is likely to be refuted in near-term forthcoming papers.) The sensitivity of SRM levels has implications for control systems regimes (as discussed recently in eg the cybernetics paper)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w21355 Solar Geoengineering, Uncertainty, and the Price of Carbon Garth Heutel, Juan Moreno Cruz, Soheil Shayegh NBER Working Paper No. 21355 Issued in July 2015 NBER Program(s): EEE PE We consider the socially optimal use of solar geoengineering to manage climate change. Solar geoengineering can reduce damages from atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, potentially more cheaply than reducing emissions. If so, optimal policy includes less abatement than recommended by models that ignore solar geoengineering, and the price of carbon is lower. Solar geoengineering reduces temperature but does not reduce atmospheric or ocean carbon concentrations, and that carbon may cause damages apart from temperature increases. Finally, uncertainty over climate change and solar geoengineering alters the optimal deployment of solar geoengineering. We explore these issues with an analytical model and a numerical simulation. The price of carbon is 30%-45% lower than the price recommended in a model without geoengineering, depending on the parameterizations of geoengineering costs and benefits. Carbon concentrations are higher but temperature is lower when allowing for solar geoengineering. The optimal amount of solar geoengineering is more sensitive to climate uncertainty than is the optimal amount of abatement. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
