http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2016-42/esd-2016-42.pdf


Abstract"The rapid rise of global temperature that began about 1975 continues 
at a mean rate of about0.18°C/decade, with the current annual temperature 
exceeding +1.25°C relative to 1880-1920.Global temperature has just reached a 
level similar to the mean level in the prior interglacial25 (Eemian) period, 
when sea level was several meters higher than today, and, if it long remains 
atthis level, slow amplifying feedbacks will lead to greater climate change and 
consequences. Thegrowth rate of climate forcing due to human-caused greenhouse 
gases (GHGs) increased over20% in the past decade mainly due to resurging 
growth of atmospheric CH4, thus making itincreasingly difficult to achieve 
targets such as limiting global warming to 1.5°C or reducing30 atmospheric CO2 
below 350 ppm. Such targets now require “negative emissions”, i.e., 
extractionof CO2 from the atmosphere. If rapid phasedown of fossil fuel 
emissions begins soon, most ofthe necessary CO2 extraction can take place via 
improved agricultural and forestry practices,including reforestation and steps 
to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content. In thiscase, the 
magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range 
of the35 current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible 
climate impacts could beminimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel 
emissions by the current generation wouldplace a burden on young people to 
undertake massive technological CO2 extraction, if they are tolimit climate 
change. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture 
andstorage (BECCS) or air capture of CO2 imply minimal estimated costs of 
104-570 trillion dollars40 this century, with large risks and uncertain 
feasibility. Continued high fossil fuel emissionsunarguably sentences young 
people to either a massive, possibly implausible cleanup or growingdeleterious 
climate impacts or both, scenarios that should provide both incentive and 
obligationfor governments to alter energy policies without further delay."

GR  A)$104-570 could prove to be a bargain or B) maybe with a serious search 
for and practice of "technological" CDR options we can drive the cost and risk 
down and the feasibility up, just as we did with the first $7000 light bulb and 
the first multi $M computer.  And why is risk and uncertain feasibility 
"unarguably" constrained to "technological" solutions when increasing the 
terrestrial biosphere CO2 sink (why ignore the ocean biosphere?) doesn't appear 
to be any non-technological walk in the park either??? Anyway, given our track 
record on emissions reduction, do we really have the option of not seriously 
pursuing CDR, whatever the "burden" might look like at this early stage of 
development?


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