Am all for truth and logic. So by "emissions reduction" I meant that in the
fullest sense - renewables, fusion, efficiency, CCS, etc - everything that
doesn't involve CDR. In theory, yes, CDR could do it all alone (your point 2),
but given the present technical uncertainties and time frame that seems a scary
idea and not something I would advocate. By the same token at this late date it
is also a scary idea to think that emissions reduction (of all kinds) is going
to save the day in time. So for these reasons I believe that it is now morally
hazardous not to consider/evaluate/test all of the above (OK, at least the best
ideas) simultaneously if allowed by recently noted human psychological
limitations. Or what am I missing?
Greg
From: Peter Eisenberger <[email protected]>
To: Greg Rau <[email protected]>
Cc: Geoengineering <[email protected]>; "[email protected]"
<[email protected]>
Sent: Tuesday, August 22, 2017 3:56 PM
Subject: Re: [geo] The influence of learning about (CDR) on support for
mitigation policies
Hi Greg ,Just for a moment of truth- free of moral hazards and climate change
politics 1 Emissions reductions through capturing and storing CO2 cannot solve
the climate problem alone (and cost too much )2 CDR can solve the problem
alone -it is just more difficult without emissions reductions 3 While it is
true that in the short term an emission reduction from a plant already
operating is equivalent to a CDR reduction of the same size one can most
effectively reduce emissions by switching to renewables 4 Now the tricky point
is that any technology has a practical limit of how fast it can be implemented
-so lets use a doubling of capacity every two years - we know that experience
curves result in cost reductions with installed capacity 5 So if one wanted to
achieve the paris targets as fast as possible one would invest in renewables
and in CDR (DAC) and not spend a penny on emissions reductions which in
reducing the rate (the opprotunity cost of emissions reductions)on would be
slowing down the other two deployments increasing the time it would take for
both renewables and CDR to reach the scale needed - because the last doublings
( when all the factories making CDR and renewable will quickly make up for the
increased emmissions from existing plants -alternatively if one was to focus
first on emissions reductions and then on the other two that would be the
longest time to reach the capacities needed.
This could easily be modeled but the key is the positive feedback created by
building plants which results in enhanced rate ( new installations per year
because of lower costs and earlier establishment of mass production
capability ) make the opportunity cost of investing in emmissions reductions
that will eventually end so large they are not worth doing . In simpler terms
one does not ususally invest in solutions that cannot solve the problem if one
has available approaches that do .
I believe this logic is solid . The reason is has not been widely if at all
accepted is because clean coal got started in an era where we mistakenly(
Socolow and Pacala) thought that they together with renewables and other
things (eg conservation , efficiency etc ) could solve te climate problem .
Lots of vested interests exist(DOE in particular) that do not want to admit
that all their effort was in a dry hole so to speak.
So my position is if we are serious about the climate threat we should all
focus on renewable energy and CDR and I believe of course (which I want others
to evaluate) that DAC followed by use of the carbon that stores it is the CDR
technology that can scale and offers a low cost solution because the co2 makes
money . The other approach I would support investigating is enhancd weathering
and of course fusion .
On Tue, Aug 22, 2017 at 11:14 AM, Greg Rau <[email protected]> wrote:
Thanks, Peter. Just to amplify, the IPCC states that to stay below 2degC
warming and esp below 1.5degC warming, both emissions reduction and CDR are
required, not either/or. So how about the concept that emissions reduction
presents a "moral hazard" to (required) CDR development?
In any case, if even thinking about CDR (let alone doing it) is perceived by
humans as a threat to emissions reduction (Campbell-Arvai et al., 2017), it's
game over. We have to do both. I seriously doubt that humans are truly
incapable of doing 2 things at once, but if they are we're toast (IPCC).
Greg
From: Peter Eisenberger <[email protected]>
To: Andrew Lockley <[email protected]>
Cc: geoengineering <geoengineering@googlegroups. com>
Sent: Tuesday, August 22, 2017 1:40 AM
Subject: Re: [geo] The influence of learning about (CDR) on support for
mitigation policies
This line of reasoning is logically flawed and is one of the best examples of
how the role of CDR is misunderstood and distorted by others who have an anti
technology orientation that pervaded the original environmental movement.
It is logically flawed because it is normal for people to react to news that a
new solution exists, CDR ,to a problem they thought they could solve by
renewable energy, emissions reductions and conservation . The 2014 IPCC report
confirmed what many knew that those processes are not adequate for avoiding a
climate disaster and that CDR is needed. So switching ones emphasis to CDR
solution that can solve the problem from ones that cannot makes sense- to not
change ones emphasis is illogical. The original approach has its origins in the
original environmental movement in which renewable energy , emissions
reductions ,and energy conservation were the central tenets. The latter two
garnered the support of the people who believe industrialization and human
consumption is the real problem and want us to change. The two are combined in
the moral hazard argument - eg CDR will reduce our commitment to the previous
plan and will also be a technological fix that will argue against the
fundamental tenet of the early environmental supporters - human development has
to harm the environment so we have to reduce our footprint to zero.
On Mon, Aug 21, 2017 at 11:59 PM, Andrew Lockley <[email protected]>
wrote:
Poster's note: I'm working in this field, and the divide between liberals and
conservatives is discussed in my paper. journals.sagepub.com/ doi/full/10.1177/
1461452916659830
Climatic Change August 2017 , Volume 143, Issue 3–4, pp 321–336
The influence of learning about carbon dioxide removal (CDR) on support for
mitigation policies
- Authors
- Authors and affiliations
- Victoria Campbell-ArvaiEmail author
- P. Sol Hart
- Kaitlin T. Raimi
- Kimberly S. Wolske
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-
-
-
-
- 1.
- 2.
- 3.
- 4.
- 5.
Article
- First Online:
- 28 July 2017
- 44Shares
- 201Downloads
Abstract
A wide range of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies has been proposed to
address climate change. As most CDR strategies are unfamiliar to the public, it
is unknown how increased media and policy attention on CDR might affect public
sentiment about climate change. On the one hand, CDR poses a potential moral
hazard: if people perceive that CDR solves climate change, they may be less
likely to support efforts to reduce carbon emissions. On the other hand, the
need for CDR may increase the perceived severity of climate change and, thus,
increase support for other types of mitigation. Using an online survey of US
adults (N = 984), we tested these competing hypotheses by exposing participants
to information about different forms of CDR. We find that learning about
certain CDR strategies indirectly reduces support for mitigation policies by
reducing the perceived threat of climate change. This was found to be true for
participants who read about CDR in general (without mention of specific
strategies), bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, or direct air capture.
Furthermore, this risk compensation pattern was more pronounced among political
conservatives than liberals—although in some cases, was partially offset by
positive direct effects. Learning about reforestation, by contrast, had no
indirect effects on mitigation support through perceived threat but was found
to directly increase support among conservatives. The results suggest caution
is warranted when promoting technological fixes to climate change, like CDR, as
some forms may further dampen support for climate change action among the
unengaged.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2005-1 ) contains
supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.--
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