Hi All
I would like some help with a question which I hope will be of interest
to some of you who can get access to historical meteorological records.
We want to know how far in advance of a hurricane starting can we make a
reasonably accurate prediction that this will happen.
The obvious indicator is sea surface temperature anomaly. But the
vertical temperature gradient, the magnitude and direction of wind and
current may also give cues. There may also be Boolean combinations of
information from other regions, El Niño, jet stream patterns, Arctic
ice, bird migration even phytoplankton density.
The output might be graphs with a horizontal axis of weeks or months and
the vertical one being the prediction usefulness of any indicators
giving a total prediction score. This would allow people in control of
flotillas of spray vessels to have them in the right place.
Next would be using climate models to predict what would happen if we
sprayed in response to a false prediction.
Thank you for three corrections, so far, to the estimate of vessel
numbers. More would be welcome.
Stephen
--
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design. School of Engineering,
University of Edinburgh, Mayfield Road, Edinburgh EH9 3DW, Scotland
[email protected], Tel +44 (0)131 650 5704, Cell 07795 203 195,
WWW.homepages.ed.ac.uk/shs, YouTube Jamie Taylor Power for Change
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