Peter,
I’d just add to Mike’s point that the specific wording of yours that I explicitly disagree with is the word “priority”. To me, that suggests, well, a prioritization… that is, we should focus on DAC to the exclusion of other approaches. If you think we should consider all of the available options, and invest in all of them, then you shouldn’t use the word priority, nor say things like “The BEST path to address the threat of catastrophic climate change involves DAC with permeant storage” Personally, I think we need a portfolio of options, and we shouldn’t ignore any of them (and if you said we could only prioritize one thing, I would rather strongly vote for mitigation). DAC and SRM are different tools in the toolbox, and as Mike points out, the “best” solution quite possibly involves both of them, along with aggressive mitigation, and maybe along with other methods for CDR. That is quite a different statement from stating that one particular approach is the best, and that one particular approach should be prioritized. Two other comments: Right now the sum total US federal research on SRM is, within a rounding error, zero. So no, it is not only DAC that is receiving no funding. Funding right now for DAC I suspect outweighs funding for SRM if you include philanthropic. Also note that you attribute to me “So the only reason I am writing about this is because I do not think we should delay investing in DAC till as you say Once we have demonstrated DAC with permanent storage at Gt scale and proven it to be low cost with no side effects”. I don’t think it is possible to demonstrate DAC at Gt scale without investing in it, so I don’t know how you could read my email and conclude that I believe we should delay investing in DAC. doug From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Michael MacCracken Sent: Sunday, December 03, 2017 4:07 PM To: Peter Eisenberger <[email protected]> Cc: Douglas MacMartin <[email protected]>; Michael Hayes <[email protected]>; geoengineering <[email protected]>; David Keith <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [geo] Scientists Look to Bali Volcano for Clues to Curb Climate Change - Scientific American Dear Peter--The IPCC FOD (first order draft) of the 1.5 C special report is what is really concerning me. First, they label their emissions pathways by the end point temperature that they are aiming for a century or so in the future; thus a 1.5 C pathway is aiming at 1.5 C, but there is wide recognition and apparent acceptance that the temperature path will overshoot not just 1.5 or 2 C, but could well go a good bit over 3 C before the forcings are brought back down enough (via negative emissions, etc.) to get back to 1.5 C. Well, right now, simulations by Climate Interactive etc. have the world exceeding 2 C by 2050 and headed up a good bit further. So, we'll be having all this talk about being on 1.5 pathways when in reality the impacts will be primarily determined by the peak temperature, say 3 or 3.5 C, and some, like biodiversity loss and acceleration of ice sheet loss (and perhaps ocean acidification effects) are not really going to be reversible. Well, I just don't see emissions as likely to be cut fast enough or DAC as being phased up fast enough to prevent this, and I think the temperature/climate induced impacts are only likely to be able to be avoided with SRM, so it is needed in the near-term, and until emissions cuts and DAC can take over. My second problem with the IPCC FOD 1.5 report is that it basically accepts (based on no scientific evidence--only that negotiators chose that value as an aspirational goal) as the agreed upon long-term equilibrium temperature for society. In my view (not to mention the views of others), that is just too high a value. As Hansen et al. have argued, some long-term impacts like accelerating glacial ice loss and intensifying climate extremes, for example, started once we passed 0.5 C, so what we really need to do is get to below this value for the long-term (and some argue 0.5 C would be too high if one wants to really freeze stop the glacial loss (if that is possible). Well, while SRM could get us that cool, we really have to be working to phase out SRM, and so DAC is critical and is, as you suggest, the way to really not be creating other impacts in the long-term. But, it is going to take time to get there, and during this time, SRM has the potential to, with I think what might well be pretty modest negative impacts, to be holding down the climate change impacts until DAC is adequately phased up. What I think about your response that might rub those of us responding to you is the implication that DAC can do everything needed--well, with really tremendous cost, it could (starting now, to keep the temperature from not going up further, it would need to be removing enough CO2 to keep the atmospheric concentration from rising, so something like 40 GtCO2/yr--plus more to account for increases in methane, etc.--and while this could perhaps, on a technological basis, be done, this just seems to be a lot less likely and much more expensive than starting with SRM while emissions are phased down and DAC is phased up. It basically seems to me that the trends and impacts today make clear that the actual global temperature increase needs to be kept to less than 1.5 C and that early on there needs to be action aimed at moving the peak global average temperature increase back to below 0.5 C over the next few decades, doing all we can by emissions reductions of CO2 and especially short-lived species, strong efficiency efforts, moving aggressively to renewables, as much CDR as possible, and then the rest by SRM. So, we need every arrow in our quiver, and not implementing all throughout coming decades will result in significant negative consequences. Having you advocate this as well would seem to me the way to best unify our perspectives. Best, Mike On 12/3/17 3:06 PM, Peter Eisenberger wrote: Dear Mike , Something stange is going on here that perhaps you can help me understand . I repeatedly state that I am for doing research on other things and SRM explicitly . Yet somehow in asserting what i believe is a higher priority for our common objective I am accused of argunig against supporting other things. Maybe I have been out of a zero sum funding world but in any case I reject such logic as a basis for shaping our scientific positions. I think a let a 100 flowers bloom or everything goes approach shirks our responsibility as scientists where we should discipline ourselves to use our knowledge to prioritize things . I assert again I cannot support nor do I think it is justified to support SRM before one supports DAC . One is a backup and the other is a shot a a solution -the only sustainable solution(eg with renewable energy etc I know at this time The logic that a large investment in DAC will rob funds for other purposes is just wrong. As the paper I sent you shows certainly alot of DAC ( I argue all ) can use the CO2 to make money (not a cost a benefit) and store it at the same time. So as I have written I am convinced that in this century we will be harvesting our carbon from the sky (where it is excess) rather than mining it from the ground. $50 per tonne CO2 in terms of carbon content is about $40 per barrel. Yes I do assert that DAC that is used to provide our liquid fuels, hydrocarbions and our building materials will not be a burden on society but an asset. By the way if one is concerned about wasting capital than join me in appposing electric vehicles and instead suport renewable gasoline made for CO2 from the air and hydrogen from water powereed by the sun. That will save trillions in new infrastructure that could indeed be better spent on education or health or other infrastructure . Peter On Sun, Dec 3, 2017 at 11:39 AM, Michael MacCracken <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > wrote: Dear Peter--I don't really think you can say that your approach is without the risk of adverse impacts in that it will take much longer to pull down the temperature than will DAC. Yes, DAC gets you to the lower temperature over time, but in the interim a lot is going on. Now, yes, if a very great more were invested to implement DAC, one could have a nearer-term impact, but then one is taking money from society for other purposes, etc. It seems to me, the metric to be used for comparison might be the net reduction in impacts (I do agree SRM would not uniquely lead to less impacts everywhere and of every type) per unit of money of some amount invested. This is not in any way to be saying we should not be investing in DAC but I don't think your argument makes the case for not also doing research on SRM of various types (and SRM is getting very little research money as well). Given the seriousness and imminence of the predicament that we are in, in my opinion, a broad-based and aggressive research effort is needed that recognizes the advantages and shortcomings of each type of approach and ultimately aims for a program that draws on multiple approaches to deal with the rapidly worsening situation. Best, Mike MacCracken On 12/3/17 2:24 PM, Peter Eisenberger wrote: Dear Doug , I am sorry for the misunderstanding : I am clearly for doing efforts on other approaches including SRM But the situation as it stands is that the only solution conceptually that can address the threat of climate change without the risk of adverse impacts is DAC with permanent storage. Yet it is the only approach to this date that has effectively zero public funding support and until very recently policy support. So my argument is that we all should support public funding of DAC efforts that can be published and shared that will test the premise that it can be done at low cost at a gigatonne scale. What I have further shared is that our commercial efforts involving experts in industrail gas technology ( eg separating gases from air) have determined that $50 per tonne DAC is achievable and that we are having great commercial success -so much so that I have committed us not to seek public funding if it were approved. So the only reason I am writing about this is because I do not think we should delay investing in DAC till as you say Once we have demonstrated DAC with permanent storage at Gt scale and proven it to be low cost with no side effects, When I read that I think that every year we delay starting a serious effort on DAC is a year longer of risking catastrophic climate change -the overshoot will be more and the time will be greater. So I literally believe that I need to surpress my interests in the company where others delaying is better(less competition) and instead as a scientist try to get people to understand that DAC will be low cost -all we have to do is do it . Furthermore I argue that our patents that are public enable an indpendent person like Ellen Stechl to understand why DAC can be low cost and why others are mistaken in asserting otherwse . Peter On Sun, Dec 3, 2017 at 4:30 AM, Douglas MacMartin <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > wrote: Peter, Once we have demonstrated DAC with permanent storage at Gt scale and proven it to be low cost with no side effects, then I would agree that we can stop researching other options. Until then I think it is premature to declare that we have found the solution and can ignore every other option. I know you disagree with me, but I do not think that we know what the costs of a technology are going to be when we haven’t implemented it at even a tiny fraction of a meaningful scale. I’m not convinced that it will be as cheap as you believe it to be, but furthermore, it is not possible for you to convince me without demonstrating both removal and storage at Gt scale; sorry, but I’ve been an engineer all my life and have seen my share of overconfident predictions (and probably safe to say zero accurate predictions at this stage of technology development), and I simply don’t believe that it is theoretically possible to accurately predict costs and issues to sufficient accuracy without actually doing something. Therefore I don’t understand why you insist on picking the right solution today and stopping all research on all other solutions. I don’t view this as a competition. At any rate, if you have any concern about nonlinearities and tipping points, you should strongly support research into SRM, as that’s a pretty strong argument in favour of it. We don’t know what would happen if we allowed the planet to keep warming, but we’re a lot less likely to pass major earth system tipping points if we keep the system “closer” to the current state. That is, of course it is almost trivially true that a world that is say 1.5C (just to use the Paris number, not endorsing it) due only to CO2 is less risky than a world that would have been 3C due to CO2 but is brought back to 1.5C with SRM. But that second scenario is quite likely to be less risky than allowing a 3C world. Although we don’t actually know that today, not without further research. So I’m not sure why you’re so vehemently opposed to any further research into SRM… which is how I interpret your comments. doug From: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> [mailto:[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> ] On Behalf Of Peter Eisenberger Sent: Sunday, December 03, 2017 4:48 AM To: Michael Hayes <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > Cc: geoengineering <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> >; David Keith <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > Subject: Re: [geo] Scientists Look to Bali Volcano for Clues to Curb Climate Change - Scientific American Vocanic euptions have impacts that are much more imporant than their transitory impact on climate. Their most significant role is in replenishing critcal elements to preserve the fertiliity of the soil. This in turn of course raises the issue of what the impact will be of human efforts to do SRM on the rest of the ecosystems. This in turn is the cause for concern about unexpected consequences and a concern that cannot be addressed by theory or experiment because complex systems evolution is not predictable and we only have one planet. The important aspect of climate change from a risk perspective is not the first order linear responses but rather whether one crosses some tipping point where the internal feedbacks drive the system to a very different and usually catastrophic state. Such tipping points are an inherent property of both the climate and the ecosystems and ala the butterfly effect are inherently unpredictable. Thus the real issue is not how SRM is like volcanoes but rather what are the unintended feedback from SRM. As a physicist ,and not a DAC advocate, the fact is that DAC with permanent storage is the path to address the risk of catastrophic climate change that has the lowest risk of triggering adverse impacts compared to alternatives when implemented at a global scale for any signiifcant period of time. It is clear to that all of us share the goal of wanting to prevent the consequences of catastrophic climate change. So in the positive spirit of tryimg to develop a consencus ageneda I assert The BEST path to address the threat of catastrophic climate change involves DAC with permeant storage -it is necessary . I respectfully ask for resposes to this assertion and that we have a constructive dialoque to see if if stands up to scrutiny. I do not want to be asserting an incorect postion but I do want our community to develop a clear science based consencus for the best actions to take. Again to be clear I personally support R&D on SRM but in the context that DAC with permanent storage is the clear priority. If my assertion is wrong and in fact we have no low risk and cost path to addressing the risk than of course SRM would have a high priority and I would want us to be asserting that . On Sat, Dec 2, 2017 at 11:10 AM, Michael Hayes <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > wrote: Sentinel-SP5 feed: http://m.esa.int/spaceinimages/Images/2017/12/Sentinel-5P_captures_Bali_volcanic_eruption -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected] <mailto:geoengineering%[email protected]> . To post to this group, send email to [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> . Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. 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