Poster's note: critical background paper. X-posting http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene Will Steffen, Johan Rockström, Katherine Richardson, Timothy M. Lenton, Carl Folke, Diana Liverman, Colin P. Summerhayes, Anthony D. Barnosky, Sarah E. Cornell, Michel Crucifix, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Steven J. Lade, Marten Scheffer, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber PNAS August 6, 2018. 201810141; published ahead of print August 6, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115 Add to Cart ($10) <http://www.pnas.org/highwire/foxycart/add/821338> 1. Edited by William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and approved July 6, 2018 (received for review June 19, 2018) - Article <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115> - - Figures & SI <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115/tab-figures-data> - - Authors & Info <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115/tab-article-info> - - PDF <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115.full.pdf> This article requires a subscription to view the full text. If you have a subscription you may use the login form below to view the article. Access to this article can also be purchased. Abstract We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values. - Earth System trajectories <http://www.pnas.org/keyword/earth-system-trajectories> - climate change <http://www.pnas.org/keyword/climate-change> - Anthropocene <http://www.pnas.org/keyword/anthropocene> - biosphere feedbacks <http://www.pnas.org/keyword/biosphere-feedbacks> - tipping elements <http://www.pnas.org/keyword/tipping-elements> Footnotes - ↵ <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115#xref-corresp-1-1> 1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: [email protected] or [email protected]. - Author contributions: W.S., J.R., K.R., T.M.L., C.F., D.L., C.P.S., A.D.B., S.E.C., M.C., J.F.D., I.F., S.J.L., M.S., R.W., and H.J.S. wrote the paper. - The authors declare no conflict of interest. - This article is a PNAS Direct Submission. - This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115/-/DCSupplemental. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
