The fundamental relationships discussed here were analysed in an early
paper, using equations of a basic climate model often applied in
integrated assessment of climate change. It determines mathematical
conditions for zero and negative emissions (shown in Figure 3 as a
function of climate sensitivity and climate targets). The integral
mentioned by Klaus Lackner is used on page 266. The paper also
determines economic conditions for energy transitions to meet climate
targets but can also be used to determine conditions for climate
engineering (which 2008 was a rather new topic):
Scheffran J (2008) Adaptive management of energy transitions in
long-term climate change. Computational Management Science 5(3):
259-286. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10287-007-0044-1
Access:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/24053927_Adaptive_management_of_energy_transitions_in_long-term_climate_change
On 14.09.2019 12:15, Klaus Lackner wrote:
For climate change the integral over the emissions matter. If the
integral is to remain constant, we have to drive the emissions to
zero, i.e., they have to come down. For that we need a negative time
derivative of emissions, but so far we have kept even derivative
positive as well. We are still on the accelerator not on the brake.
If we want to have the integral to come down, we need negative
emission. (And yes the ocean helps a little, but the ocean is good at
it, because the rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere maintain a
gradient. If the CO2 does not go up anymore, the gradient into the
ocean will gradually go away and with it the rate at which the ocean
picks up CO2.
Uptake will slow down right away and not wait until the entire ocean
filled up.
Klaus
*From: *"Hawkins, David" <[email protected]>
*Date: *Saturday, September 14, 2019 at 12:03 PM
*To: *Klaus Lackner <[email protected]>
*Cc: *Andrew Revkin <[email protected]>, "[email protected]"
<[email protected]>, "[email protected]"
<[email protected]>
*Subject: *Re: [geo] No fossil fuels = global warming stops “soon”
And, we are not stopping emissions yet. Even under the most ambitious
scenario (the LED scenario by Grübler, et al), cumulative additional
CO2 emissions to 2100 from fossil energy use are over 630 Gt.
Coupled with about 250 Gt of enhanced “nature-based” removals, the
result is more than a 40% increase in the temperature anomaly we are
suffering today—an increase that persists into the 22nd century.
When one considers the pain that is being inflicted today from extreme
events (to which climate disruption is already adding), that is a lot
of additional suffering.
We have crossed into the realm of dangerous anthropogenic interference
with the climate system. We must not trespass further but we will.
The job is to move back toward the climate we enjoyed earlier as fast
as we can.
David
Sent from my iPad
On Sep 14, 2019, at 10:45 AM, Klaus Lackner <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
Yes, the oceans are taking on heat. But the energy imbalance
remains until the CO2 is gone. The oceans will take up both the
CO2 and the heat, but it is a slow (and slowing) process.
*From: *Andrew Revkin <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>>
*Date: *Friday, September 13, 2019 at 7:42 PM
*To: *Klaus Lackner <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>>
*Cc: *"[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>"
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>>,
"[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>"
<[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>>
*Subject: *Re: [geo] No fossil fuels = global warming stops “soon”
If we stop the energy imbalance, oceans can also go a long way
toward spreading that existing heat burden over time, as per this
Rosenthal, Linsley, Oppo work:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/342/6158/617
<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__science.sciencemag.org_content_342_6158_617&d=DwMFaQ&c=l45AxH-kUV29SRQusp9vYR0n1GycN4_2jInuKy6zbqQ&r=hFjA8A8KwwhQx5qilpfIleTL0XYVr_fckT8DnwIEWlQ&m=c5WkKQm80oGtr-ik0DfPBRt8G9lGzOp9Rc3aUa_j94M&s=GysUrJWxBv1OzAzhlNJZ5RtjBqxRsmk9ibIxV3U2Ik4&e=>
https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/31/10000-year-study-finds-oceans-warming-fast-but-from-a-cool-baseline/
<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com_2013_10_31_10000-2Dyear-2Dstudy-2Dfinds-2Doceans-2Dwarming-2Dfast-2Dbut-2Dfrom-2Da-2Dcool-2Dbaseline_&d=DwMFaQ&c=l45AxH-kUV29SRQusp9vYR0n1GycN4_2jInuKy6zbqQ&r=hFjA8A8KwwhQx5qilpfIleTL0XYVr_fckT8DnwIEWlQ&m=c5WkKQm80oGtr-ik0DfPBRt8G9lGzOp9Rc3aUa_j94M&s=v9pklsd2w8YcGIIivLMYXTHahJdT_7PyynBwqc7wvAE&e=>
On Fri, Sep 13, 2019 at 8:16 AM Klaus Lackner
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
If by warming you mean an increase in the temperature, then
warming will stop soon. If by warming you mean that it is
warmer than without excess Greenhouse gases, then this excess
temperature will be with us a long time. Solomon et al claimed
it is 1000 years.
Klaus
*From: *<[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> on behalf of E
Durbrow <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>>
*Reply-To: *"[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>"
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>>
*Date: *Friday, September 13, 2019 at 5:09 PM
*To: *"[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>"
<[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>>
*Subject: *[geo] No fossil fuels = global warming stops “soon”
Alan Robock wrote: "Certainly if we stop burning fossil fuels,
global warming will not stop immediately, but it will stop soon. “
As a layperson, my understanding is that even if fossil fuels
burning stops tomorrow, warming and acidification will
continue for decades rather than years. This is because of 2
centuries of greenhouse gas build-up (and greenhouse
contributions from agriculture).
Would some kind soul tell me that I’m wrong here?
Thanks!
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