Right, which is why I am talking a lot these days about the need to supplement emission reduction with carbon removals.
Typed on tiny keyboard. Caveat lector. On Sep 14, 2019, at 11:15 AM, Klaus Lackner <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: For climate change the integral over the emissions matter. If the integral is to remain constant, we have to drive the emissions to zero, i.e., they have to come down. For that we need a negative time derivative of emissions, but so far we have kept even derivative positive as well. We are still on the accelerator not on the brake. If we want to have the integral to come down, we need negative emission. (And yes the ocean helps a little, but the ocean is good at it, because the rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere maintain a gradient. If the CO2 does not go up anymore, the gradient into the ocean will gradually go away and with it the rate at which the ocean picks up CO2. Uptake will slow down right away and not wait until the entire ocean filled up. Klaus From: "Hawkins, David" <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> Date: Saturday, September 14, 2019 at 12:03 PM To: Klaus Lackner <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> Cc: Andrew Revkin <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>, "[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>" <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>, "[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>" <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> Subject: Re: [geo] No fossil fuels = global warming stops “soon” And, we are not stopping emissions yet. Even under the most ambitious scenario (the LED scenario by Grübler, et al), cumulative additional CO2 emissions to 2100 from fossil energy use are over 630 Gt. Coupled with about 250 Gt of enhanced “nature-based” removals, the result is more than a 40% increase in the temperature anomaly we are suffering today—an increase that persists into the 22nd century. When one considers the pain that is being inflicted today from extreme events (to which climate disruption is already adding), that is a lot of additional suffering. We have crossed into the realm of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. We must not trespass further but we will. The job is to move back toward the climate we enjoyed earlier as fast as we can. David Sent from my iPad On Sep 14, 2019, at 10:45 AM, Klaus Lackner <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: Yes, the oceans are taking on heat. But the energy imbalance remains until the CO2 is gone. The oceans will take up both the CO2 and the heat, but it is a slow (and slowing) process. From: Andrew Revkin <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> Date: Friday, September 13, 2019 at 7:42 PM To: Klaus Lackner <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> Cc: "[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>" <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>, "[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>" <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> Subject: Re: [geo] No fossil fuels = global warming stops “soon” If we stop the energy imbalance, oceans can also go a long way toward spreading that existing heat burden over time, as per this Rosenthal, Linsley, Oppo work: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/342/6158/617<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__science.sciencemag.org_content_342_6158_617&d=DwMFaQ&c=l45AxH-kUV29SRQusp9vYR0n1GycN4_2jInuKy6zbqQ&r=hFjA8A8KwwhQx5qilpfIleTL0XYVr_fckT8DnwIEWlQ&m=c5WkKQm80oGtr-ik0DfPBRt8G9lGzOp9Rc3aUa_j94M&s=GysUrJWxBv1OzAzhlNJZ5RtjBqxRsmk9ibIxV3U2Ik4&e=> https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/31/10000-year-study-finds-oceans-warming-fast-but-from-a-cool-baseline/<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com_2013_10_31_10000-2Dyear-2Dstudy-2Dfinds-2Doceans-2Dwarming-2Dfast-2Dbut-2Dfrom-2Da-2Dcool-2Dbaseline_&d=DwMFaQ&c=l45AxH-kUV29SRQusp9vYR0n1GycN4_2jInuKy6zbqQ&r=hFjA8A8KwwhQx5qilpfIleTL0XYVr_fckT8DnwIEWlQ&m=c5WkKQm80oGtr-ik0DfPBRt8G9lGzOp9Rc3aUa_j94M&s=v9pklsd2w8YcGIIivLMYXTHahJdT_7PyynBwqc7wvAE&e=> On Fri, Sep 13, 2019 at 8:16 AM Klaus Lackner <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: If by warming you mean an increase in the temperature, then warming will stop soon. If by warming you mean that it is warmer than without excess Greenhouse gases, then this excess temperature will be with us a long time. Solomon et al claimed it is 1000 years. Klaus From: <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> on behalf of E Durbrow <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> Reply-To: "[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>" <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> Date: Friday, September 13, 2019 at 5:09 PM To: "[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>" <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> Subject: [geo] No fossil fuels = global warming stops “soon” Alan Robock wrote: "Certainly if we stop burning fossil fuels, global warming will not stop immediately, but it will stop soon. “ As a layperson, my understanding is that even if fossil fuels burning stops tomorrow, warming and acidification will continue for decades rather than years. 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