https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JD031093

The Regional Hydroclimate Response to Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering
and the Role of Stratospheric Heating
I. R. Simpson S. Tilmes J. H. Richter B. Kravitz D. G. MacMartin M. J.
Mills … See all authors
First published: 16 November 2019
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031093
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Abstract
Geoengineering methods could potentially offset aspects of greenhouse
gas‐driven climate change. However, before embarking on any such strategy,
a comprehensive understanding of its impacts must be obtained. Here, a
20‐member ensemble of simulations with the Community Earth System Model
with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model as its atmospheric
component is used to investigate the projected hydroclimate changes that
occur when greenhouse gas‐driven warming, under a high emissions scenario,
is offset with stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. Notable features of
the late 21st century hydroclimate response, relative to present day,
include a reduction in precipitation in the Indian summer monsoon, over
much of Africa, Amazonia and southern Chile and a wintertime precipitation
reduction over the Mediterranean. Over most of these regions, the soil
desiccation that occurs with global warming is, however, largely offset by
the geoengineering. A notable exception is India, where soil desiccation
and an approximate doubling of the likelihood of monsoon failures occurs.
The role of stratospheric heating in the simulated hydroclimate change is
determined through additional experiments where the aerosol‐induced
stratospheric heating is imposed as a temperature tendency, within the same
model, under present day conditions. Stratospheric heating is found to play
a key role in many aspects of projected hydroclimate change, resulting in a
general wet‐get‐drier, dry‐get‐wetter pattern in the tropics and
extratropical precipitation changes through midlatitude circulation shifts.
While a rather extreme geoengineering scenario has been considered, many,
but not all, of the precipitation features scale linearly with the offset
global warming.

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