Poster's note: for some reason the actual paper didn't get shared to the list even though I was aware of it. Apologies.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abbf13 Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering could lower future risk of 'Day Zero' level droughts in Cape Town Romaric C Odoulami1, Mark New1, Piotr Wolski2, Gregory Guillemet3, Izidine Pinto2, Christopher Lennard2, Helene Muri4 and Simone Tilmes5 Published 18 November 2020 • © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd Environmental Research Letters, Volume 15, Number 12 Citation Romaric C Odoulami et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 124007 DownloadArticle PDF DownloadArticle ePub 2725 Total downloads Article has an altmetric score of 202 Abstract Anthropogenic forcing of the climate is estimated to have increased the likelihood of the 2015–2017 Western Cape drought, also called 'Day Zero' drought, by a factor of three, with a projected additional threefold increase of risk in a world with 2 °C warming. Here, we assess the potential for geoengineering using stratospheric aerosols injection (SAI) to offset the risk of 'Day Zero' level droughts in a high emission future climate using climate model simulations from the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble Project. Our findings suggest that keeping the global mean temperature at 2020 levels through SAI would offset the projected end century risk of 'Day Zero' level droughts by approximately 90%, keeping the risk of such droughts similar to today's level. Precipitation is maintained at present-day levels in the simulations analysed here, because SAI (i) keeps westerlies near the South Western Cape in the future, as in the present-day, and (ii) induces the reduction or reversal of the upward trend in southern annular mode. These results are, however, specific to the SAI design considered here because using different model, different SAI deployment experiments, or analysing a different location might lead to different conclusions. Export citation and abstract BibTeX RIS Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. Supplementary data 1. Introduction 2. Data and methods 3. Defining the event and its probability 4. Projected changes in the likelihood of 'Day Zero' droughts 5. Discussion and conclusion Acknowledgments Data availability statement Show References -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAJ3C-06b9fv4JHW%2BLtp%2BEky%3D%2Bg9DrxVtHq8WXGC-8aW7aUwNJw%40mail.gmail.com.
