Here's a new paper of ours. Keep in mind that it analyses an extreme
scenario, from GLENS at the end of the century.
Banerjee, Antara, Amy H. Butler, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Alan Robock, Isla
R. Simpson, and Lantao Sun, 2021: Robust winter warming over Eurasia
under stratospheric sulfate geoengineering – the role of stratospheric
dynamics. /Atm. Chem. Phys./, *21*, 6985-6997,
doi:10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021.
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/6985/2021/
*Abstract*
It has been suggested that increased stratospheric sulfate aerosol
loadings following large, low latitude volcanic eruptions can lead to
wintertime warming over Eurasia through dynamical
stratosphere–troposphere coupling. We here investigate the proposed
connection in the context of hypothetical future stratospheric sulfate
geoengineering in the Geoengineering Large Ensemble simulations. In
those geoengineering simulations, we find that stratospheric circulation
anomalies that resemble the positive phase of the Northern Annular Mode
in winter are a distinguishing climate response which is absent when
increasing greenhouse gases alone are prescribed. This stratospheric
dynamical response projects onto the positive phase of the North
Atlantic Oscillation, leading to associated side effects of this climate
intervention strategy, such as continental Eurasian warming and
precipitation changes. Seasonality is a key signature of the dynamically
driven surface response. We find an opposite response of the North
Atlantic Oscillation in summer, when no dynamical role of the
stratosphere is expected. The robustness of the wintertime forced
response stands in contrast to previously proposed volcanic responses.
--
Alan
Alan Robock, Distinguished Professor
Chair-Elect, AGU College of Fellows
Associate Editor, /Reviews of Geophysics/
Department of Environmental Sciences Phone: +1-848-932-5751
Rutgers University E-mail:
[email protected]
14 College Farm Road http://people.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock
New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551 ☮ https://twitter.com/AlanRobock
"I've got a feeling 21 is going to be a good year" - The Who from the
album /Tommy/
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