https://www.essoar.org/doi/abs/10.1002/essoar.10511096.1

Scenario and Model Dependence of Strategic Solar Climate Intervention in
CESM
John T. Fasullo, Jadwiga H. Richter

Abstract

Model dependence in simulated responses to stratospheric aerosol injection
(SAI) is a major uncertainty surrounding the potential implementation of
this solar climate intervention strategy. We identify here large
differences in the aerosol mass distributions between two recently produced
climate model SAI large ensembles, despite using similar climate targets,
with the goal of understanding the drivers of such differences. Using a
hierarchy of recently produced simulations, we identify three main
contributors including: 1) the rapid adjustment of clouds and rainfall to
elevated levels of carbon dioxide, 2) the associated low-frequency
dynamical responses in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and
3) the contrasts in future climate forcing scenarios. Each contribution
also represents a potentially irreducible uncertainty over the likely
timeframe of a potential SAI deployment if a 1.5C target is to be met and
the results thus suggest the need for significant flexibility in the
deployment of SAI if enacted.

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