The ordering referred to at the end of the prior post is: (1) cooling, (2) adaptation, (3) reduction, (4) removal. Best, Ron
On Thu, Jun 2, 2022 at 10:56 AM Ron Baiman <[email protected]> wrote: > Hi Robert, > > Absolutely agree on the priority and emergency of (1) direct cooling but I > think we can make this point while > also remaining forceful advocates for (2) emissions reductions, (3) > adaptation including loss and damage, and (4) GHG removal, by pointing out > that large scale climate disaster and imminent first tipping point (arctic > summer sea ice melting) is already happening at current levels of warming, > and that we either are already, or are about to, cross (the now obviously > too generous) 1.5 and 2.0 theoretical climate thresholds as there is no way > in hell that we're going to "halve global emissions in eight years" by 2030 > as the IPCC 1.5 special report indicated must be done to keep global > warming below 1.5. - below is an excerpt from the latest (not officially > approved) HPAC White Paper draft 😊. > > "There is absolutely no possibility that we will cut half of global GHG > emissions by 2030 which according to a 2021 United Nations Environmental > Program report would be necessary to keep global warming below 1.5 °C by > 2100.1 To the contrary, the World Meteorological Association estimates > that there is a 50:50 chance of the annual average global temperature > temporarily reaching 1.5 °C in at least one of the next five years (2022 – > 2026)2, and recent research suggests that even if GHG emissions were > stopped immediately in 2022, the level of GHGs already in the atmosphere > will produce above 2.0 °C warming by 2100.3, > > [1] “To keep global warming below 1.5°C this century, the aspirational > goal of the Paris Agreement, the world needs to halve annual greenhouse gas > emissions in the next eight years.” United Nations Environmental Program. > Emissions Gap Report 2021. Oct. 26, 2021: > https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021 > > [1] World Meteorological Organization. May 9, 2022: > https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-update-5050-chance-of-global-temperature-temporarily-reaching-15%C2%B0c-threshold > > [1] Zhou, Chen, Mark D. Zelinka, Andrew E. Dressler, and Minghuai Wang. > 2021. Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect. > Nature Climate Change Vol. 11 February: 132-136." > > > I think we can all agree that (1) and (2) are short term emergencies, and > (3) and (4) are long-term restoration and ecological regeneration efforts > to reposition our entire political economy and human civilization toward a > "renewable energy and materials economy" and our relationship with nature. > *They > (not direct climate cooling) are the heavy but necessary lift *that, > without a global cap a trade regime that induces mandatory (not wholly > inadequate voluntary "Climate Fund") transfers funding and technology from > rich to poor countries, could take a very long time - into the next > century. The cooling part is (as you have aptly put it) is a practical > "tourniquet" (or I used the term "triage" paliative) effort to stem > planetary bleeding as we work to actually solve the long-term problems > that should be, relatively speaking, an easier lift, certainly in terms of > money and resources, but also in terms of governance as it doesn't require > a top to bottom transformation of the global economy. I think this is the > point that your diagram is getting at - but the politics of substituting > cooling and CDR for emissions reductions would I think (as many of others > in this thread have noted) be a mistake. Noe of (1) - (4) above should be > substitutes - the EU (as I recall) has made this point as part of an effort > to set strictly separable emissions and GHG removal targets. > > Best, > Ron > > > > On Mon, May 30, 2022 at 6:40 AM 'Robert Tulip' via NOAC Meetings < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> The attached Climate Security Timeline shows a new suggestion on climate >> priorities. >> >> >> >> It calls for a shift away from emission reduction as the main agenda, to >> instead focus at global level on albedo enhancement. Brightening the >> planet to reflect more sunlight can stabilise and reverse the movement >> toward a hotter world as the foundation of a new climate approach. Agreed >> systems to increase albedo should be in place before 2030. With a brighter >> planet as the foundation, the direct cooling effects make time available to >> scale up greenhouse gas conversion and removal to levels well above >> emissions. By the 2040s, GGC&R can produce steady decline in GHG levels >> over the second half of this century. Carbon dioxide conversion can store >> hundreds of billions of tonnes of carbon in valuable locations such as >> soil, biomass, etc, reducing the need to sequester as CO2. Market demand >> can regulate global emissions, which at annual scale are a minor factor in >> radiative forcing compared to albedo and GHG concentrations. >> >> >> >> The critical engineering path suggested for the planetary climate is like >> building a house. Albedo is the foundation, greenhouse gas conversions and >> removals are the walls, and decarbonisation caps the roof by a future move >> away from fossil fuels. You cannot build walls and roof until you have >> laid the foundation. That creates a timeline whereby global focus on a >> brighter world in this decade can replace the sole political emphasis on >> emissions and can give practical support to the recognition that removal of >> atmospheric carbon is essential. >> >> >> >> Without higher albedo, GHG effects cannot cool the planet. Higher albedo >> can only be engineered by peaceful global cooperation on new technologies >> such as marine cloud brightening. Albedo needs to be addressed first, >> especially at the poles, where refreezing should be an immediate global >> priority for climate security. Turning the polar oceans from dark to light >> by stopping the melting of summer ice will make a critical difference in >> the planetary energy balance. A main focus on albedo will give time for the >> slower effects of GHG conversion, removal and reduction to contribute over >> the next decades to a stable and secure and productive planetary climate. >> This order of priorities can sustain the biosphere conditions that have >> enabled humans and all other living species to flourish on our planet Earth. >> >> >> >> Robert Tulip >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "NOAC Meetings" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> To view this discussion on the web visit >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/noac-meetings/061801d8741a%240aecc350%2420c649f0%24%40yahoo.com.au >> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/noac-meetings/061801d8741a%240aecc350%2420c649f0%24%40yahoo.com.au?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >> . >> > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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