https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/37372300

Exploring the Limits of Geophysical Models of Solar Geoengineering

Colleen Golja

AbstractSolar Radiation Modification (SRM) is a proposed method of reducing
climate risks associated with climate change via modification of Earth's
radiative budget. Due to the impracticality of global experimentation,
research on SRM has largely been conducted via computational simulations of
the Earth system. These simulations may incorporate different spatial
scales, physical capabilities or relevant chemistry dependent on the type
and version of the model used. Computational tractability inhibits any
single model from perfectly capturing all relevant phenomena. Therefore to
produce a robust understanding of SRM a diverse set of models must be
applied. This thesis leverages three distinct types of models to explore
key uncertainties related to the efficacy of SRM. In the first part of this
thesis we explore the microphysical limitations of aerosol injection
relevant to a small scale stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) experiment.
We detail the configuration of a novel plume scale model which we use to
quantify the influence of injection material, mass flux and configuration.
Findings indicate that the plumes downstream aerosol size distribution
depends more strongly on injection rate than injection configuration. The
second part of this thesis outlines the potential role for
super-parameterized general circulation models as a means of evaluating
standard model ability to capture SRM induced changes to vertical heating
distributions and modifications to convection. The third part of this
thesis shows results from a five model intercomparison with an imposed
stratospheric heating tendency and evaluates policy relevant surface
variables for robust responses to the applied forcing. Results suggest that
previous estimations of the overall role of stratospheric heating in
driving SRM surface response were overstated, and provides a framing to
contextualize explicitly derived modes of aerosol forcing in the overall
short wave radiative reduction. This thesis concludes with a reflection on
the role of climate grief in research and discourse on climate change and
SRM.

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