Dear Michael, I think I understand your concerns, but I don't agree that this topic is out of bounds for the CDR list as it in my view clearly includes CDR issues (and I've received private feedback from CDR focused folks on this list saying that they agree with me.)
For example how much GHG drawdown will be necessary to actually cool the planet if net-zero (both anthropogenic and natural) can be achieved as (based on the modeling) restoring 350 ppm will not be adequate due to continued heating from the ocean, and if more GHG is drawn down that could hypothetically create a problem of excess cooling if the excess ocean heat eventually dissipates? The problem is one of trying to adjust a flow balance like global warming equilibrium with stock variables (GHG in the atmosphere and CO2 in the ocean) when other factors (cumulative ocean surface warming) are also at play. It seems to me that the new modeling results suggest that "temporary" cooling measures could be necessary and/or more effective than CDR in the future even if some (obviously not including myself) believe that they are not called for right now? In any case rather than this rather pointless debate, may I suggest that folks who are not interested in this thread can just ignore it? Best, Ron On Mon, Feb 20, 2023 at 6:59 PM Michael Hayes <[email protected]> wrote: > Dear Ron, et al. > > Generally speaking, cooling is clearly an important STEM, policy, and > economic subject. Specifically, I myself would like to see an urgent > research and deployment focus upon producing nothing but a vast amount of > sea ice as that alone can likely help many critical biogeochemical needs > which include helping the planetary C cycle, it's all connected. > > With that said and in defense of a highly focused CDR posting practice > within the CDR Google Group, the primary benefit of a very specific CDR > focus is that it helps build high level action oriented collaborative > efforts around well defined STEM, policy, and socioeconomic goals along > with helping build specific RDD&D funding paths. > > At the theoretical level, a broad spectrum effort of linking what is now > an almost uncountable number of innovative ideas concerning mitigation and > adaptation, or the 'GE' model of discussion, is likely to overwhelm any > action oriented collaboration of any size, of any complexity, or of any > level of funding. As such, action on many of the individual concepts within > such a broad 'GE' style STEM basket becomes much harder at almost all > meaningful levels. The limiting of the STEM, policy, and socioeconomic > discussions to CDR has seemingly managed to avoid such a form of paralysis, > and this CDR centric Google Group likely has helped provide the needed > focus to do so by itself staying focused. > > Best regards > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Mon, Feb 20, 2023, 3:18 PM Ron Baiman <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Thank you for the question Michael. >> >> My understanding is that the global warming impact of the "bottom up" >> heat from the ocean in the models is closely related to the level of >> offsetting cooling from natural (and other) GHG draw down from the >> atmosphere and the Oceans. In other words, rates of natural GHG uptake in >> the Ocean, and draw down from the atmosphere and ocean through other means, >> are key elements in the long term modeling that could presumably also be >> impacted by applying "bottom up" and "opening up" cooling techniques. The >> question is whether there is any modeling of the balancing levels and >> potential time scales for the GHG processes that would give some idea of >> the needs and types of potentially necessary cooling processes. >> >> Ron Baiman >> >> >> Ron >> >> >> >> On Mon, Feb 20, 2023 at 4:48 PM Michael Hayes <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >>> Ron, how does this relate to CDR? >>> >>> On Mon, Feb 20, 2023, 2:10 PM Ron Baiman <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> For more on the OTEC, WOXON, and CCT cooling methods see cooling paper >>>> linked to here: https://www.healthyplanetaction.org/ >>>> >>>> On Mon, Feb 20, 2023 at 4:03 PM Ron Baiman <[email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>> Dear Colleagues, >>>>> >>>>> In lieu of the recent research suggesting that we may be in for a >>>>> warming plateau of at least 50 years after net-zero due to the roughly >>>>> offsetting effects of continued ocean uptake of GHG and release of latent >>>>> heat accumulated in the ocean over many decades of warming (see: >>>>> https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached/) >>>>> does anyone know of modeling research on the potential need for "bottom >>>>> up" >>>>> direct cooling at the point where the "warming from below" from the ocean >>>>> is greater than "the warming from above" from the sun? >>>>> I'm thinking of techniques such as OTEC and WOHC (to harvest energy >>>>> from and cool the oceans) as well as CCT (to "open up" the clouds so as >>>>> to >>>>> release more heat that has already been accumulated)? >>>>> >>>>> Thank you! >>>>> >>>>> Ron Baiman >>>>> >>>> -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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