*6.3 C (63% of 10) by 2020* On Sun, Feb 26, 2023 at 7:56 PM Ron Baiman <[email protected]> wrote:
> Robert, > > Do you have a page number or an explanation of how you arrived at your > figures? In the paper(https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474) on p. 31 I'm > finding: "The 7-10 C global warming is the eventual response if today's > level of GHGs is fixed and the aerosol amount is somewhere between its year > 2000 amount and preindustrial amount." but the key temp Figure 7 on p. 18 > doesn't extend beyond 2025. In the section on Climate response times (p. > 32) the paper states that the in 2020 GISS GCM: "...the time required for > the model to achieve 63% of its equilibrium response remains about 100 > years" which would put the expected temp based on forcing estimated in the > paper at 6.3 C (63% or 10) by 2023. Is this where you're getting your 6.3 > C by 2120 from? Unfortunately, I have not had the time (and probably not > the background) to go through the entire paper and understand it well! > > Best, > Ron > > > On Sun, Feb 26, 2023 at 7:09 PM Ron Baiman <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Thanks for the correction Robert! >> >> Sent from my iPhone >> >> On Feb 26, 2023, at 6:41 PM, Robert Chris <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> >> >> Ron >> >> Hansen et al say that the 10degC is based on 'today's GHG level' and that >> it has an e-folding time of 100 years. That implies 6.3degC by 2120 and a >> bit less by 2100. >> >> Regards >> >> Robert >> >> >> On 26/02/2023 23:43, Ron Baiman wrote: >> >> Jim Hansen et al (https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474 ) believe that >> existing legacy GHG's have put us in "in the pipeline" for 10 degrees C >> warming by 2100! >> >> -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAPhUB9A%3D%3D7ReMcX972gAa21YTb%2B4a%2BmkHDgqFvo2d0adZJWydg%40mail.gmail.com.
