https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU23/EGU23-10813.html

*Authors*
Tamas Bodai
<https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU23/0000-0002-3049-107X>1, Valerio
Lembo <https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU23/0000-0001-6085-5914>1,
Sundaresan
Aneesh1, Sun-Seon Lee
<https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU23/0000-0001-7403-6485>1, Miho
Ishizu <https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU23/0000-0002-3035-7655>1,
and
Matthias Franz

*Abstract*

Linear and nonlinear response functions (RF) are extracted for the climate
system and the carbon cycle represented by the MPI-ESM and cGENIE models,
respectively. Appropriately designed simulations are run for this purpose.
Joining these RFs, we have a climate emulator with carbon emissions as the
forcing and any desired observable quantity (provided the data is saved),
such as the surface air temperature or precipitation, as the predictand.
Like e.g. for atmospheric CO2 concentration, we also have RFs for the solar
constant as a forcing — mimicking solar radiation management (SRM)
geoengineering. We consider two application cases. 1. One is based on the
Paris 2015 agreement, determining the necessary least amount of SRM
geoengineering needed to keep the global mean surface air temperature below
a certain threshold, e.g. 1.5 or 2 [oC], given a certain amount of carbon
emission abatement (ABA) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) geoengineering.
2. The other application considers the conservation of the Greenland ice
sheet (GrIS). Using a zero-dimensional simplification of a complex ice
sheet model, we determine (a) if we need SRM given some ABA and CDR, and,
if possible, (b) the required least amount of SRM to avoid the collapse of
the GrIS. Keeping temperatures below 2 [oC] even is hardly possible without
sustained SRM (1.); however, the collapse of the GrIS can be avoided
applying SRM even for moderate levels of CDR and ABA, an overshoot being
affordable (2.).

How to cite: Bodai, T., Lembo, V., Aneesh, S., Lee, S.-S., Ishizu, M., and
Franz, M.: Development and application of a climate emulator, EGU General
Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10813,
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10813, 2023.

*Source: EGU General Assembly 2023*

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