This doesn’t seem to have anything to do with whether the goal is economically realistic. It’s only about whether the goal is politically realistic.
On Thu, Apr 6, 2023 at 11:40 PM Ron Baiman <[email protected]> wrote: > Dear Colleagues, > > Follow up to previous 1.5 C or 2.0 C post: > > c) Some quick calculation regarding the unrealistic economics of trying to > stay below 15 c, or 1.8 C (per the "well below" 2 C of the Paris Accord) > based on a purely voluntary NDC regime: > > As global GHG emissions have not declined by 4.65% from 2019 which would > have necessary for gradual year over year achievement of the 35 GT CO2e > level in 2030 necessary for a 66% chance of staying below 1.8 C estimated > by the UNEP/IPCC per the the citations in my paper ( > https://www.cpegonline.org/post/our-two-climate-crises-challenge ), we > now have to reduce global GHG emissions from an estimated 58 GT CO2e in > 2022 by 6.12% per year to reach 35 GT by 2030 (just redid the calc). > > I don't see this happening in any real-world scenario that I am aware of. > Certainly not without a global cap and trade system like the Kyoto accord > that has been dismantled in favor of voluntary NDCs. In the last 4 years > (from 2019 59.1 GT to 2022 58 GT) we've been able to achieve a 0.6% (just > did the calc) year over year reduction that is about 1/10th the level of > reduction that we would need from now on to get to 35 GT by 2030. > > Best, > Ron > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAPhUB9BBmacNDRYim1hvM%2BjtPQOr%3DrFd9yUbP-ufYA2GkqUtAA%40mail.gmail.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAPhUB9BBmacNDRYim1hvM%2BjtPQOr%3DrFd9yUbP-ufYA2GkqUtAA%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAP%3DxTqOqDV4AaR7XxhjrnK69hxMXRWOGkx_rVRV4k_56T1Kijg%40mail.gmail.com.
