Dear Colleagues, Follow up to previous 1.5 C or 2.0 C post:
c) Some quick calculation regarding the unrealistic economics of trying to stay below 15 c, or 1.8 C (per the "well below" 2 C of the Paris Accord) based on a purely voluntary NDC regime: As global GHG emissions have not declined by 4.65% from 2019 which would have necessary for gradual year over year achievement of the 35 GT CO2e level in 2030 necessary for a 66% chance of staying below 1.8 C estimated by the UNEP/IPCC per the the citations in my paper ( https://www.cpegonline.org/post/our-two-climate-crises-challenge ), we now have to reduce global GHG emissions from an estimated 58 GT CO2e in 2022 by 6.12% per year to reach 35 GT by 2030 (just redid the calc). I don't see this happening in any real-world scenario that I am aware of. Certainly not without a global cap and trade system like the Kyoto accord that has been dismantled in favor of voluntary NDCs. In the last 4 years (from 2019 59.1 GT to 2022 58 GT) we've been able to achieve a 0.6% (just did the calc) year over year reduction that is about 1/10th the level of reduction that we would need from now on to get to 35 GT by 2030. Best, Ron -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAPhUB9BBmacNDRYim1hvM%2BjtPQOr%3DrFd9yUbP-ufYA2GkqUtAA%40mail.gmail.com.
