https://essopenarchive.org/users/622124/articles/645378-quantifying-climate-distinguishability-after-stratospheric-aerosol-injection-using-explainable-artificial-intelligence

*Authors*

   - Antonios Mamalakis
   - Elizabeth A. Barnes
   - James Wilson Hurrell

Peer review timeline
25 May 2023Submitted to *ESS Open Archive *
<https://essopenarchive.org/inst/20904>
*01 Jun 2023**Published* in *ESS Open Archive*
*Cite as: *Antonios Mamalakis, Elizabeth A. Barnes, James Wilson
Hurrell. Quantifying “climate distinguishability” after stratospheric
aerosol injection using explainable artificial intelligence. *ESS Open
Archive .* June 01, 2023.
DOI: 10.22541/essoar.168565419.96137434/v1
<https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.168565419.96137434/v1>
Abstract
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been proposed as a possible
complementary solution to limit global warming and its societal
consequences. However, the climate impacts of such intervention remain
unclear. Here, we introduce an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI)
framework to quantify how distinguishable an SAI climate might be from a
pre-deployment climate. A suite of neural networks is trained on Earth
system model data to learn to distinguish between pre- and post-deployment
periods across a variety of climate variables. The network accuracy is
analogous to the “climate distinguishability” between the periods, and the
corresponding distinctive patterns are identified using XAI methods to gain
insights into the emerging signals from SAI. For many variables, the two
periods are less distinguishable under SAI than under a no-SAI scenario,
suggesting that the specific intervention modeled decelerates future
climatic changes. Other climate variables for which the intervention has
negligible effect are also highlighted.

*Source: ESS OPEN ARCHIVE*

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