https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ace4e0/meta
*Author* Patrick W Keys <https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7250-1563> *Published 18 July 2023 * Environmental Research Letters <https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326>, Volume 18 <https://iopscience.iop.org/volume/1748-9326/18>, Number 8 <https://iopscience.iop.org/issue/1748-9326/18/8>Citation Patrick W Keys 2023 *Environ. Res. Lett.* 18 081003DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ace4e0 Abstract Climate change scenarios are typically based on trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions out into the future. These emissions are then incorporated into climate and earth system models to simulate pathways of global climate change. These pathways are often communicated as the average of numerous model simulations. Though essential for calculating the role of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system, this approach inadvertently masks the fact that our future will conform to something akin to a single model simulation, or storyline—rather than the average of many simulations. Human responses to and interactions with these climate storylines will not necessarily be expected or rational. As such, potential social surprises could lead to multiple plotlines emerging from a single earth system storyline. Such social surprises are explored in three examples: net zero emissions achievement, low climate sensitivity, and solar climate intervention. Climate change scenarios are fundamentally dependent on policy pathways that in practice will be influenced by public perception and expectation. Thus, it is essential for climate change scenarios to recognize and incorporate the potential for heterogeneous social surprises to unexpected climate changes. *Source: IOP SCIENCE* -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAHJsh9-EevsNqYFH25So%3DgNJwxve65H_k4OqBeVnwgMDEY1ZSQ%40mail.gmail.com.
