Really important issues being touched on here.  I've been otherwise occupied in recent days but plan to watch the recording shortly and offer some further thoughts then.  I sense we're getting to the core of why decisive and effective action is so challenging.  I don't think it's impossible, but to make it happen we need to calibrate our expectations across a number of interconnected realms of which the technology is possibly the least demanding.

Regards

Robert


On 09/09/2023 12:20, 'Douglas Grandt' via Planetary Restoration wrote:
Thanks, Sev -

I had similar reaction and you’ve expressed my thoughts more precisely and clearly.

Especially your references to *gated, localised testing* while intensely monitoring for global responses, ramping up in discrete steps, making adjustments as appropriate.

Cheers,
Doug


Sent from my iPhone (audio texting)

On Sep 9, 2023, at 3:15 AM, 'Sev Clarke' via Planetary Restoration <[email protected]> wrote:

 Folks,

I have a mixed response to this post by Ye. Those ideas I somewhat disagree with, or which require greater nuance, I respond to in bold print below.

On 9 Sep 2023, at 3:15 pm, Ye Tao <[email protected]> wrote:

Dear Ron,

First, I also applaud Anton for an excellent presentation and thank the whole team at Operatioo Arktis for being excellent hosts. I thank you, Ron, for your enthusiasm, which I sadly find problematic. *Ron’s and our enthusiasm has many legs to its' stool, several of which seem likely to be both feasible and effective. This is far better than fatalism, denial, obstruction, BAU, mild or delayed action, or apathy.*

A major learning, or rather realization, for many of us at Arctic Momentum is how little we understand the science of SAI, MCB, and any of the many proposed regional techniques presented at the conference.  Some discussion groups also mentioned that we don't yet have a clear idea on how to decide among various climatic outcomes, _even if assuming_ the science and engineering eventually advance to such a point that climate and weather could be designed with high fidelity. *We cannot afford to wait for high fidelity. Nor do we need to decide now on which are to be the specific climate interventions and locales in which to deploy them. *  Our general state of ignorance inspired my recent post about starting to develop  "figure of merit function(s)" to evaluate climate outcomes based on globally agreed upon targets ultimately stemming from a set of morally robust values. *A small group at* *NOAC/HPAC/PRAG are now developing those very same figure of merit functions. *Given ubiquitous chasms in knowledge gaps, we would be mistakenly putting the horse before the cart try leveraging the moment for the specific end of getting SAI implemented. *There are several NOAC-based methods that are safer and often easier, cheaper and quicker to develop that is SAI. *

There is no skipping steps to good science and engineering, and SAI and MCB are a couple decades of research away from acceptable scientific understanding and technical readiness. *I disagree, several NOAC methods might well be sufficiently developed to warrant testing within just a few years. *  There are so many known unknowns and known problems with SAI, some of which I have mentioned before here on this forum and which have yet to be addressed. *But less so with some of the other methods.*

In the interim, there are a variety of local geoengineering methods that need to be given priority.  Global safety must be prioritized in our line of work. *In the emergency situation we find ourselves, and using gated, localised testing, global safety means that some risks must be taken as they are far less than not acting. One needs to balance risk and likely effect against risk and likely effect, just as do professional risk managers.*  Promising local methods include mechanically slowing down ice melting by raising kinetic barriers, MEER for adaptive mitigation to help victims of our excesses here and now, ice thickening methods to preserve annually average albedo, and targeted preservation of Arctic ice by new methods *Agreed, though our figure of merit assessments may well rule out many such methods.* I will hopefully soon share in a HPAC talk.

While collaboration and support by Finland, Norway, Canada, the US, *[RUSSIA*], and Arctic indigenous peoples would be critically important, they are insufficient for ensuring that modifying global climate is done in a factually democratic fashion *In an emergency situation democracies typically delegate decisions to those best placed to make them*, by the people and for the people.  While we know very little about SAI, what we do know is that anything SAI with polar impact would have a global impact elsewhere.   All sovereign states need to be included in this conversation, at the very beginning. *But not where the effects of gated testing are likely to be localised. Then, only early notification and published EIS’s should be required. *

Since the science is simply not there.  Let's start here.   Experimental science is where priority must be place, not computer simulations which not event the coders trust. *Right, but do not stop trying to model the effects.*  It is insufficient to appear to be inclusive. I see a growing trend towards building a facade of inclusiveness.  It is suspect to fund a selected few high profile and visible Global South researchers to participate in research using computer codes developed by academics from the Northern,  studying specific methods proposed by a handful of individuals from the North.  If we were truly undertaking this endeavor for justice and a future worth fighting for, we must do much more and much better. *I repeat my words on emergency situations. Inclusion is great if it can be achieved with little loss of development speed. Moreover, as developing nations are likely to be first and most adversely affected by global warming (Arctic nations excluded), these are just the locales where early testing should take place - inclusively.*

Best

Ye

On 9/8/2023 6:08 PM, Ron Baiman wrote:
Dear Anton et al.,

Excellent meeting!  I'm really sorry that I missed it!  I got the time wrong but just finished viewing the recording!

I was going to ask a question related to a proposal to begin to test the SAI polar approach (proposed by the "Cornell SAI group") - direct cooling of the Arctic (and Antarctic - as they both need to tackled together for symmetry - see Bala reference in the paper) based on the International Space Station model. This could be approached as a method to try to quickly slow down or reverse Arctic and Antarctic melting and restore previous conditions as much as possible - along with other possible Direct Climate Cooling and intervention approaches.  My thinking is that collaboration and support by Finland, Norway, Canada, the US and Arctic indigenous peoples would be critically important. It could be framed as a "save the poles" effort but could potentially be the platform to start a serious global climate cooling effort.

Suggested comments to this proposal welcome!: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1o5xQogx1kKgD-QlM4MVPdWeL2BzBtwUm/view?usp=sharing

Thank you all!

Best,
Ron




On Fri, Sep 8, 2023 at 10:20 AM <[email protected]> wrote:

    The recording of this meeting is at https://youtu.be/unPOcBY3idU


    Thank you very much Anton for joining us.


    *From:*[email protected]
    <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *[email protected]
    *Sent:* Monday, September 4, 2023 9:00 PM
    *To:* healthy-planet-action-coalition
    <[email protected]>; 'Planetary
    Restoration' <[email protected]>; NOAC
    <[email protected]>; 'geoengineering'
    <[email protected]>; 'Anton Keskinen'
    <[email protected]>
    *Subject:* [geo] HPAC this week: ARCTIC MOMENTUM Conference


    The Healthy Planet Action Coalition welcomes Mr Anton Keskinen,
    organiser of the just completed Arctic Momentum Conference in
    Finland, as our guest speaker this week.


    Date: Thursday 7 September

    Time: 10pm Finland (=3pm EST, 8pm UK, 5am Friday Australia AEST)

    Duration: 90 minutes

    Link:
    https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88954851189?pwd=WVZoeTBnN3kyZFoyLzYxZ1JNbDFPUT09


    Anton will explain key outcomes from the Conference followed by
    discussion with meeting participants.  All welcome.

    Operaatio Arktis (operaatioarktis.fi/en
    <http://operaatioarktis.fi/en>) organized the public event
    ARCTIC MOMENTUM on 31st August in Helsinki, Finland, about the
    state of the Arctic, and why we should conduct more research on
    climate interventions.

    Event page with more information on the high level goals, as
    well as the program: https://www.operaatioarktis.fi/arcticmomentum

    Description

    “We are a group of climate activists, turned from the street
    movement to advance and lobby for climate intervention
    research. Our goal is to preserve the Arctic Summer Sea Ice.
    For that we urge the Finnish government to take lead on the
    research needed. We are open for the possibility of finding
    several complementing methods to achieve this – perhaps some
    direct sea ice growth manipulation and SRM combined with the
    obvious emission reductions and GHG removal. Part of our
    mission is to bring different stakeholders and research teams
    together to enable visioning how climate intervention methods
    could complement each other, instead of focusing on debating
    which one is better or worse idea.

    The public session on 31st August is part of a larger three-day
    gathering, where we bring together indigenous leaders,
    activists, scientists, government officials and policy makers,
    to discuss who, if at all, should we move forward with
    preserving the Arctic.

    One of our main messages is that we must shift from the old
    climate paradigm (Climate Mitigation) to a new climate paradigm
    (Climate Repair). The old paradigm is about reducing emissions,
    accepting the damage that's unavoidable with emission cuts, and
    adapting when possible. The new paradigm states that we must
    reduce emissions, and try to prevent and repair the damage
    that's unavoidable even with sharp emission cuts, and adapt
    when possible. While the old paradigm presents what we call in
    our publication Arctic Endgame "politics of accepted victims",
    the new paradigm is antidote for this.

    We aim to change this climate paradigm first in Finland, and
    then in the whole World.

    You can read Arctic Endgame here:
    https://www.operaatioarktis.fi/en/arctic-endgame
    For those of you (I assume most) who cannot attend our public
    event on 31st in person, the event will be streamed on our
    Youtube page: https://www.youtube.com/@operaatioarktis2193

    Follow us on

    Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/operaatioarktis/
    Twitter: https://twitter.com/OperaatioArktis
    Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/OperaatioArktis

    Subscribe our newsletter on the bottom of our website:
    operaatioarktis.fi/en <http://operaatioarktis.fi/en>

    Regards

    Robert Tulip

    https://www.healthyplanetaction.org/

-- You received this message because you are subscribed to the
    Google Groups "geoengineering" group.
    To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from
    it, send an email to [email protected].
    To view this discussion on the web visit
    
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/024001d9df1e%24fb765730%24f2630590%24%40rtulip.net
    
<https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/024001d9df1e%24fb765730%24f2630590%24%40rtulip.net?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>.

-- You received this message because you are subscribed to the
    Google Groups "geoengineering" group.
    To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from
    it, send an email to [email protected].
    To view this discussion on the web visit
    
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/147901d9e268%240929c9b0%241b7d5d10%24%40rtulip.net
    
<https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/147901d9e268%240929c9b0%241b7d5d10%24%40rtulip.net?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>.

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC)" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/CAPhUB9DTULJvQO1eFgeTxsw%3DsHxMQuFw0UL6eWXdDxWNqS_ayg%40mail.gmail.com <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/CAPhUB9DTULJvQO1eFgeTxsw%3DsHxMQuFw0UL6eWXdDxWNqS_ayg%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC)" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/192e2074-8cb9-91ab-2910-c7209f89b602%40rowland.harvard.edu <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/192e2074-8cb9-91ab-2910-c7209f89b602%40rowland.harvard.edu?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "NOAC Meetings" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/noac-meetings/2508F0E1-A018-477F-9475-AA406235F691%40icloud.com <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/noac-meetings/2508F0E1-A018-477F-9475-AA406235F691%40icloud.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>.
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Planetary Restoration" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/planetary-restoration/F9C06843-163C-4382-94BD-A7B6023AFFF7%40mac.com <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/planetary-restoration/F9C06843-163C-4382-94BD-A7B6023AFFF7%40mac.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>.

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"geoengineering" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to [email protected].
To view this discussion on the web visit 
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/c6e37d18-e05f-0601-99e9-50ea51f76226%40gmail.com.

Reply via email to