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https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2520/

*Authors*
Anton Laakso, Daniele Visioni, Ulrike Niemeier, Simone Tilmes, and Harri
Kokkola

*How to cite*. Laakso, A., Visioni, D., Niemeier, U., Tilmes, S., and
Kokkola, H.: Dependency of the impacts of geoengineering on the
stratospheric sulfur injection strategy part 2: How changes in the
hydrological cycle depend on injection rates and model?, EGUsphere
[preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2520, 2023.

*Received: 29 Oct 2023 – Discussion started: 15 Nov 2023*


*Abstract*. This is the second of two papers where we study the dependency
of the impacts of stratospheric sulfur injections on the used model and
injection strategy. Here, aerosol optical properties from simulated
stratospheric aerosol injections using two aerosol models (modal scheme M7
and sectional scheme SALSA), as described in Part 1, are implemented
consistently into EC-Earth, MPI-ESM and CESM Earth System Models to
simulate the climate impacts of different injection rates ranging from 2 to
100 Tg(S)yr−1. Two sets of simulations were simulated with the three ESMs:
1) Regression simulations, where abrupt change in CO2 concentration or
stratospheric aerosols over preindustrial conditions were applied to
quantify global mean fast temperature independent climate responses and
quasi-linear dependence on temperature and 2) equilibrium simulations,
where radiative forcing of aerosol injections with various magnitudes
compensate the corresponding radiative forcing of CO2 enhancement to study
the dependence of precipitation on the injection magnitude; the latter also
allow to explore the regional climatic responses. Large differences in
SALSA and M7 simulated radiative forcings in Part 1 translated into large
differences in the estimated surface temperature and precipitation changes
in ESM simulations: e.g. an injection rate of 20 Tg(S)yr−1 in CESM using M7
simulated aerosols led to only 2.2 K global mean cooling while EC-Earth –
SALSA combination produced 5.2 K change. In equilibrium simulation, where
aerosol injections were used to compensate for radiative forcing of 500 ppm
atmospheric CO2 concentration, global mean precipitation reduction varied
between models from -0.7 to - 2.4 %. These precipitation changes can be
explained by the fast precipitation response due to radiation changes
caused by the stratospheric aerosols and CO2 because global mean fast
precipitation response is rather negatively correlated with global mean
absorbed radiation. Our study shows that estimating the impact of
stratospheric aerosol injection on climate is not straightforward. This is
because the capability of the sulfate layer to reflect solar radiation and
absorb LW radiation is sensitive to the injection rate as well as the
aerosol model used to simulate the aerosol field. These findings emphasize
the necessity for precise simulation of aerosol microphysics to accurately
estimate the climate impacts of stratospheric sulfur intervention. This
study also reveals gaps in our understanding and uncertainties that still
exist related to these controversial techniques.

*Source: EGU Sphere*

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