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https://nomadit.co.uk/conference/easst-4s2024/paper/84399

*Author*
Duncan McLaren (UCLA)

*Short abstract:*
This paper deconstructs proposals for risk-risk analysis as an anticipatory
approach to evaluate the desirability of development of geoengineering. It
identifies practical and ethical shortcomings in extant proposals,
discusses their implications, and proposes ways to make such analysis
useful.

*Long abstract:*
In the face of rapidly growing climate harms, research into solar
geoengineering promises possibilities of averting some of the risks of
otherwise unavoidable climate change. Yet the technology would also bring
novel risks. Risk-risk, or risk trade-off analysis has been proposed as an
appropriate anticipatory approach to evaluate the desirability of
development of solar geoengineering. This paper examines the discursive
implications of risk-based approaches to climate policy, and deconstructs
extant proposals for risk trade-off analysis of policy options. It argues
that such proposals construct a false binary between climate harm and
geoengineering and rely on a consequentialist ‘lesser evil’ argument. In
both respects the discourse fails to anticipate interaction effects between
potential responses. Further, the discourse frames solar geoengineering as
an ‘exceptional response’ to climate risk, yet paradoxically advocates
evaluation using technocratic utilitarian risk calculus, rather than
engaging with the securitisation and pre-emption implied by exceptional or
emergency circumstances. The paper then discusses the implications of these
shortcomings for anticipatory and precautionary governance of solar
geoengineering, suggesting practical methodological improvements to
risk-risk analysis. It concludes by making a case for rigorous
consideration of the risks and benefits of a wider range of exceptional
responses to climate change, effective anticipatory governance for any
exceptional response, and the urgent development of broad public
participation mechanisms for shaping responses to growing climate risk.

*Source: NomadIT*

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