HI Mike, The reference is present-day, not pre-industrial, and yes, the monsoonal precipitation would be less than in present-day if SAI were applied to a high GHG scenario in the future. This study explores the processes that can lead to rainfall changes for monsoon precipitation over India, demonstrated on one specific model simulation. Simone
On Thu, Aug 29, 2024 at 4:06 PM 'Michael MacCracken' via geoengineering < [email protected]> wrote: > It would sure be helpful if they made clear what they were using as the > reference. Is the monsoon less than it would be without SRM as GHGs go up, > or is it less than it was in preindustrial times? > > Mike MacCracken > On 8/29/24 8:29 AM, Geoengineering News wrote: > > https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-4631758/v1 > > *Authors* > Simone Tilmes, Asutosh Acharya, Ewa Bednarz, Suvarna Fadnavis > > *26 August 2024* > > https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4631758/v1 > > *Abstract* > The South Asian summer monsoon (SAM) bears significant importance for > agriculture, water resources, economy, and environmental aspects of the > region for more than 1.5 billion people. To minimize the adverse impacts of > global warming, Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention (SAI) has been proposed > to lower surface temperatures by reflecting a portion of solar radiation > back into space. However, the effects of SAI on SAM are still very > uncertain and demand more research. We investigate this using the > Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble datasets. Our study > reveals a reduction in the mean and extreme summer monsoon precipitation > under SAI in this scenario, driven by a combination of the SAI-induced > lower stratospheric warming and the associated weakening of the northern > hemispheric subtropical jet, changes in the upper-tropospheric wave > activities, geopotential height anomalies, and the strength of the Asian > Summer Monsoon Anticyclone. Local dust changes that can otherwise be > important for SAM rainfall variability under climate change also contribute > to changes under SAI. As the interest in SAI research grows, our results > demonstrate the urgent need to understand SAM variability under different > SAI scenarios, which is essential for sustainable development and disaster > preparedness in South Asia. > > *Source: Research Square* > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAHJsh99Ey0at14nQdBWNtutTdGMS6y0Yce5N5VYbhB%2BBR6t%2BgA%40mail.gmail.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAHJsh99Ey0at14nQdBWNtutTdGMS6y0Yce5N5VYbhB%2BBR6t%2BgA%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/e00bbbbf-92f1-4a96-8df7-d0dd9856098a%40comcast.net > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/e00bbbbf-92f1-4a96-8df7-d0dd9856098a%40comcast.net?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- *Simone Tilmes,* *Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations & Modeling LabNational Center for Atmospheric Research* * PO Box 3000* *Boulder, Colorado 80307-3000* *303-497-1445* *303-497-1400 (fax) * *[email protected] <[email protected]>* -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CADe6QRi04N9msw80QPEL%3D3uC09LkSD8dhQPkEtM2n%3DnpOM47Yg%40mail.gmail.com.
