https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.173462728.87124716
*Authors*
Francis Nkrumah, Kwesi Akumenyi Quagraine, Gandome Mayeul Leger Davy
Quenum, Daniele Visioni, Hubert Azoda Koffi, Nana Ama Browne Klutse
*19 December 2024*
*Abstract*
This study examines West Africa’s climate vulnerability under stratospheric
aerosol injection (SAI) using two climate models: UKESM1 and CESM2. We
analyzed temperature and precipitation patterns between 2050-2069 compared
to 2015-2034 under two scenarios: SSP2-4.5 and ARISE-SAI-1.5. Our
methodology involved evaluating temperature and precipitation anomalies,
using Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) analysis to assess climate signal
reliability, and analyzing precipitation extremes through Cumulative
Distribution Function (CDF) and Probability Density Function (PDF). Under
SSP2-4.5, UKESM1 showed temperature increases of 1.8{degree sign}C while
CESM2 showed increases of 1.0-1.2{degree sign}C. However, under
ARISE-SAI-1.5, UKESM1 showed cooling (-0.3{degree sign}C below reference
period) while CESM2 maintained slight warming (0-0.3{degree sign}C above
reference). SNR analysis revealed that SAI significantly dampened the
warming signal in UKESM1, making precipitation and temperature trends less
detectable. CDF and PDF analyses showed that while SAI may reduce warming,
it increases precipitation variability and uncertainty. These results
emphasize the importance of multi-model comparisons when assessing
geoengineering impacts, as models can produce varying results based on
their sensitivity to radiative forcing and other factors.
*Source: ESS Open Archive*
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