https://www.researchgate.net/publication/383918692_Feedback_Trends_with_ECS_from_Energy_Rates_Feedback_Doubling_and_the_Vital_Need_for_Solar_Geoengineering
*Author* Alec Feinberg September 2024 *Abstract* This paper provides climate feedback trends, quantifies the feedback-doubling (FD) period, and provides related climate sensitivity estimates using data from 1975 to 2024 including a small GW adjustment from 1880 to 1974. Modeling is accomplished by focusing on statistically significant stable normalized correlated rates (NCRs, i.e. normalized related slopes). Estimates indicate that global warming NCR is increasing by a factor of 1.65 to 2.33 times faster than energy consumption NCR, from 1975 to 2024. The reason is due to feedback amplification. This is supported by the fact that the NCR for forcing and energy consumption shows approximate equivalency in the period studied. Results provide feedback trend estimates at the 95% confidence level that key results will fall within the IPCC AR6 likely range. The projected 2017-2024 feedback amplification estimates, using the EC approach, range from 2.0 to 2.16, respectively. A feedback amplification of 2.0 (approximately equal to -2.74 Wm-2K-1) doubles the forcing, indicating that in 2024, more than half of global warming (53.7%) is likely due to feedback. This is denoted as a feedback-doubling (FD) threshold in this study (i.e. the point where feedback exceeds forcing), with a defined FD overage level giving the percentage (3.7% in 2024) of feedback exceeding the forcing portion. We now ask, 1) shouldn’t we try to mitigate feedback as well as GHG forcing, 2) if forcing could be removed, would global warming fully “self-mitigate”? Additionally, CO2 yearly increases are complex, leading to poor unreliable reduction progress showing the inefficient capability to meet goals causing high GW risks. Furthermore, feedback amplification and forcing rates are in similar estimated ranges which is effectively raises the GW rate. Therefore, this study urgently recommends reverse forcing with supplementary “mild” solar geoengineering to reduce feedback and GW trends. Urgency, is enhaced since solar geoengineering must be timely and can take years to develop. The study also estimates that 75% to 90.5% (83% average) of this problem is due to water vapor feedback which has had a very large non-linear increase from 2022 to 2024. Furthermore, the EC approach additionally finds that feedback amplification has jumped from 0.0136 yr-1 to 0.0258 yr-1 from 2022 to 2024. Depending on the average rate, trends analysis indicates that by 2047, the earliest we may reach 10 billion people, feedback amplification could reach a value of 2.4 to 2.8. Furthermore, by 2082, the year estimated for 2xCO2, at the current rate, feedback amplification could range from 2.88 to 3.71 which equates to -1.55Wm-1K-1 to -1.21 Wm-1K-1, respectfully. This yields an ECS range from 2.4oC to 3.07oC in reasonable agreement with the reported estimated range in AR6. This paper also overviews recent data showing an urbanization forcing influence indicating that the CO2 forcing attribution and the ECS value may be lower by 10.7% if this forcing is considered. Since the rate of EC is estimated to be a main driver for the forcing rate in this study, we note that 75% of energy is consumed in urban areas and NCR assessment indicates energy consumption has exceeded the population growth rate by a factor of 1.159 or about 16% higher. *Source: ResearchGate* -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAHJsh995Pf_%3DrbRx2J_tFG4fqxt4a8Lfr2k5rzo9J9m4UxTGYQ%40mail.gmail.com.
