https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024EF005269

*Authors*
Brendan Clark, Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Sam S. Rabin, Jose R. Guarin, Gerrit
Hoogenboom, Jonas Jägermeyr

First published: *06 February 2025*

https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005269

*Abstract*
As the severity of climate change and its associated impacts continue to
worsen, schemes for artificially cooling surface temperatures via planetary
albedo modification are being studied. The method with the most attention
in the literature is stratospheric sulfate aerosol intervention (SAI).
Placing reflective aerosols in the stratosphere would have profound impacts
on the entire Earth system, with potentially far-reaching societal impacts.
How global crop productivity would be affected by such an intervention
strategy is still uncertain, and existing evidence is based on theoretical
experiments or isolated modeling studies that use crop models missing key
processes associated with SAI that affect plant growth, development, and
ultimately yield. Here, we utilize three global gridded process-based crop
models to better understand the potential impacts of one SAI scenario on
global maize productivity. Two of the crop models that simulate diffuse
radiation fertilization show similar, yet small increases in global maize
productivity from increased diffuse radiation. Three crop models show
diverse responses to the same climate perturbation from SAI relative to the
reference future climate change scenario. We find that future SAI
implementation relative to a climate change scenario benefits global maize
productivity ranging between 0% and 11% depending on the crop model. These
production increases are attributed to reduced surface temperatures and
higher fractions of diffuse radiation. The range across model outcomes
highlights the need for more systematic multi-model ensemble assessments
using multiple climate model forcings under different SAI scenarios.

*Key Points*

This is the first multi-crop model assessment of stratospheric aerosol
climate intervention (SAI) impacts on global agriculture

Two crop models show that SAI benefits global maize relative to climate
change, and the third crop model shows a very mild response to SAI

Changes to diffuse radiation in this scenario have a small impact on global
maize, while temperature changes dominate the overall response

*Plain Language Summary*
Human activities are continuing to put planet-warming greenhouse gases into
the atmosphere. Increasing the amount of sulfate aerosols in the
stratosphere has been proposed as a way to reflect a small portion of
incoming solar radiation to temporarily cool the Earth's surface
temperature and, therefore, mitigate the impacts of climate change.
However, these reflective particles cause complex atmospheric feedback
mechanisms that may lead to societal and Earth system impacts that are
difficult to predict, including impacts on global food production. As a
pilot study, we explore impacts on global maize productivity using
state-of-the-art mechanistic climate and crop models and highlight that
more research on this topic is still needed before informed decisions can
be made.

*Source: AGU*

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