https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL118851

*Authors: *Warren P. Smith, Simone Tilmes, Benjamin Gaubert, Claire
Granier, Yunqian Zhu, Oliver Eppers, Franziska Köllner, Philipp Brauner,
Andrew Rollins, Eleanor Waxman, Gregory Schill, Colin Gurganus, L. Gregory
Huey, David Tanner, Young-Ro Lee, Chelsea Bekemeier

*04 February 2026*

Abstract

Anthropogenic emissions over China have recently declined due to
environmental actions. This work estimates the sensitivity of sulfate
aerosol (SO4) concentration to the amount of SO2 emissions reduction over
China from 2010 to 2020 using an Earth system model with two different
aerosol representations. We find that a larger rate of SO2 emissions
decline over 2010–2020 from an updated Chinese emission inventory leads to
improvement in modeled SO2 and SO4 concentrations when evaluated with
targeted airborne observations from the Asian summer monsoon region from
the 2022 Asian summer monsoon Chemical and Climate Impact Project. Updated
Chinese SO2 emissions reduce SO4 concentration by >20% at 200 hPa over the
North Pacific, and by >7% at 100 hPa throughout the tropics.
These SO4 reductions result in an increase to global net instantaneous
radiative forcing of ∼0.10–0.15 W m−2 by 2020, with regional effects up
to ∼6 times greater.
*Source: AGU*

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