https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ae42df/meta
*Authors: *João Gabriel Martins Ribeiro, Michelle Simões Reboita and Daniele Visioni *06 February 2026* *Abstract* We validate the South American Monsoon (SAM) lifecycle (onset, demise, and length) and its intensity from a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble against observations (1995–2015), then assess changes across future periods under warming scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) and a Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) case (G6sulfur-experiment). The ensemble reproduces the rainfall spatial pattern and the observed NW–SE gradient in SAM onset. Projections indicate a robust onset delay by late century (~2 pentads in SSP3-7.0; ~3 in SSP5-8.5), while demise shifts are modest, resulting in a shortened rainy season from Amazonia through Brazil’s Midwest to the Southeast. These signals are robust across two different metrics, one of which is the inter-model agreement ≥80%. In contrast, G6sulfur largely preserves historical timing, with little or no onset delay and a duration closer to the reference period and SSP2-4.5. However, SAM intensity is not restored to the reference period or to the SSP2-4.5 scenario. This study provides a first assessment of SAI effects on both the SAM lifecycle and intensity under global warming, contributing to the limited literature on the SAM lifecycle over South America. *Source: IOP Science * -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAHJsh99xhGndJvya%2BB4zu4j%2BvuHPWgWD%2BC%3DkE2ii2665Nxq9QA%40mail.gmail.com.
