I think Sean's back of the envelope stuff is pretty good in terms of broad
estimates.

Sean, I didn't see the $800m revenue number or 31% market share on the ESRI
link there ... where did those come from?

It's always hard doing these types of analyses (what counts as "GIS" and
what doesn't?). IDC has probably the best overall industry analysis if
you're willing to spend some money ($4500!) to buy their report. As an
example of the sort of difficulty in doing these reports, I remember when I
was at Intergraph there was some controversy when they suddenly ranked
Bentley as the number 2 company instead of Intergraph, and we (and others)
felt they must have been be counting lots of "CAD" users. But there are lots
of people doing some sort of mapping applications with Microstation and
AutoCAD so it's a gray area.

This link
http://apb.directionsmag.com/archives/4889-IDC-Pegs-SIM-Market-Growth-at-14.2.htmlsays
that the latest IDC report puts the "SIM" market at $2.8bn, which is
consistent with ESRI having 25-30% of the overall market in terms of
revenue. How that translates into total numbers of users is a harder call.
ESRI has a dominant presence in the academic market where license fees are
relatively low, so in general I would think that their average revenue per
end user is probably lower than most of their competitors like Intergraph,
Bentley, Autodesk, Smallworld (GE), MapInfo (Pitney Bowes) etc. So on that
basis Sean's number would probably be high. But on the other hand, analyses
like IDC based on software revenue wouldn't include much if any open source
software, so that might balance this out. Incidentally, I doubt that IDC has
number of end users included in its report, it is mainly based around
revenue from what I remember. But Dave Sonnen at IDC is a good source on
these type of industry questions.

The latest IDC report is available (for sale) at
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=213930

Another question is that when ESRI claims that 1m people use their software
every day, what does that mean? If someone is an end user of a simple
application built using an ESRI web server product, does that make them a
"GIS professional"? Not necessarily I would say, but again obviously there's
no clear definition there.

GITA does a good report on the segments of the industry that they are
involved in - utilities, telecom, local government, etc, which includes
quite a bit of data on end users. This is a lot cheaper than most other
market reports (disclosure: I am on the board of GITA - but not trying to
sell you anything, just letting you know some of the information sources out
there!).

For example, in the electric sector based on responses from 88 electric
utilities, they said:

"The survey asked how many employees in an organization were actively
engaged in the use of geospatial technology. Responses ranged from one
employee to 2,500, providing a total of 22,385 employees from the electric
sector. Some of these employees use geospatial technology for only a small
portion of their work (as little as 1%), while others use it for as much as
100% of their work. Average use in the electric sector is 19%."

There are about 3000 electric utilties in the US -
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/prim2/toc2.html.

They have similar details for a variety of other sectors.  This data also
raises the question of how much of your time do you have to be using
geospatial technology to count as a "GIS professional" (which I've always
felt is such a fuzzy term to be pretty meaningless) - 100%, 50%, 20%?
Incidentally, ESRI market share by number of seats in the GITA report varies
very widely - from 2% in telecom through 20% in electric to 77% in public
sector.

The GITA report is available (for sale) at
http://gita.org/resources/geo_report/georeport.asp

So anyway, I think the answer to your question is (a) difficult to work out
and (b) very heavily dependent on your definition of a GIS professional. If
you're trying to estimate potential markets for OSM-related products it
might also be worth asking the question in terms of potential users for the
type of products etc, that would help get a bit more definition.


On Mon, Nov 17, 2008 at 12:24 PM, <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> Hey Steve,
>
> Here are some back of the envelope calculations that might be helpful:
>
> Revenues in Millions    $800
> No. of Organizations    300,000
> No' of Users    1,000,000
> Market Share    31%
> Theoretical Total Market of GIS users – all vendors     3,225,806
>
> ESRI (2008) "Corporate Capabilties"
> http://www.esri.com/company/about/facts.html
>
> best,
> sean
>
>
> FortiusOne Inc,
> 2200 Wilson Blvd. suite 307
> Arlington, VA 22201
> cell - 202-321-3914
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "SteveC" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> To: [email protected]
> Sent: Monday, November 17, 2008 2:10:21 PM GMT -05:00 US/Canada Eastern
> Subject: [Geowanking] How many GIS professionals are there in the US?
>
> Subject says it all... I'm trying to pin down a number. I had amongst
> other thoughts figured that if you knew ESRIs customer base / sales
> figures then you could infer it as everyone uses ESRI right? But ESRI
> is privately held and I can't find a figure that way.
>
> Anybody care to venture a guess?
>
> Best
>
> Steve
>
>
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-- 
Peter Batty - President, Spatial Networking
W: +1 303 339 0957  M: +1 720 346 3954
Blog: http://geothought.blogspot.com
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