David beat me to the punch on this one, and probably with a far more coherent rendition of the politics. For those interested in some good readings on these matters, see:
. http://www.igsd.org/documents/Science-2012-Velders-922-3.pdf . http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/21/world/asia/global-demand-for-air-condition ing-forces-tough-environmental-choices.html?pagewanted=all Two startling figures that always leap out the most at me on this issue: * "Total avoided net annual ODS emissions [from the Montreal Protocol] are estimated to be equivalent to about 10 Gt CO2/year in 2010, which is about five times the annual reduction target of the Kyoto Protocol for 2008-2012; * Projected increases in the use of HFCs, if unabated, could means that HFCs could account for an astounding 27% of warming by 2030 wil Dr. Wil Burns, Associate Director Master of Science - Energy Policy & Climate Program Johns Hopkins University 1717 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Room 104J Washington, DC 20036 650.281.9126 (Mobile) 202.452.8713 (Fax) [email protected] http://energy.jhu.edu SSRN site (selected publications): http://ssrn.com/author=240348 Skype ID: Wil.Burns Teaching Climate/Energy Law & Policy Blog: http://www.teachingclimatelaw.org EPC Facebook page: facebook.com/JHUEPC -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Downie, David Sent: Saturday, September 01, 2012 8:57 AM To: [email protected]; GEP-ED Subject: RE: [gep-ed] Regime complexes on ozone and climate change Peter: HCFCs are regulated under the Montreal Protocol amendments and have phase-out dates. HFCs are not ozone-depleting substances. Micronesia, USA, Mexico and Canada have proposed amending the Protocol to include them under the argument that they likely would not exist if not for the CFC and HCFC phase-outs and thus even thought they are GHG, it is still the Protocol's responsibility. They also note that since the Protocol works, it would be more effective to address them in the ozone regime than in the climate regime. The EU states and other countries support the proposed amendment. China, India, Saudi Arabia and others oppose it, saying that the Montreal Protocol cannot address non-ODS, addressing HFCs would take multilateral fund money away from finishing the HCFC and methyl bromide phase-outs and addressing ODS banks, and that putting HFCs under the ozone regime could upset the climate negotiations. This stalemate has gone on for several years in the ozone negotiations (i.e. - annual amendment proposals and debate but no consensus). Addressing the HFC loophole in climate funding would help reduce objections to addressing HFCs in one of the regimes, and proponents of addressing HFCs, including those that want to do so under Montreal, have been moving in this direction for several years. This is the discussion referred to in the article. The HFC credits discussed in the article represent a `huge moral hazard' and create a large and somewhat perverse economc incentive to oppose addressing HFCs. Those that want to deal with HFCs asap have also proposed an agreement or statement of some type under the UNFCCC umbrella giving the go ahead to the ozone regime to address but this has also been blocked. David --------------------------------------------------------- David Downie Director, Program on the Environment Associate Professor of Politics Fairfield University 217 Donnarumma Hall 1073 North Benson Road, Fairfield, CT 06824 [email protected]; 203-254-4000, ext 3504 http://www.amazon.com/David-L.-Downie/e/B004APYFPC/ref=ntt_athr_dp_pel_2 ________________________________ From: [email protected] [[email protected]] on behalf of Peter Haas [[email protected]] Sent: Saturday, September 01, 2012 11:31 AM To: GEP-ED Subject: [gep-ed] Regime complexes on ozone and climate change can anybody please explain the details of this issue to me? I thought that HFCs were regulated under the Montreal Protocol amendments? http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/31/us-un-climate-idUSBRE87U0RQ2012083 1 Peter M. Haas Professor Department of Political Science 216 Thompson Hall UMASS - Amherst
