All, For those interested in Stacy’s post, read on. For others, press delete now.
…. I had an on-campus debate last Thursday with a Heritage Foundation person (James Carafano) on “Is climate change a major national security threat?” In preparing for that, I found numerous quotes, as recently as 2016 (Obama’s last year), supporting the claim that it is. I was concerned that these might lack credibility, coming from Obama’s term. Therefore, I did more homework, trying to find quotes from Trump administration officials supporting the claim. I found a few from Mattis’ confirmation hearing and a few others. However, given that the credibility of a source is strongest when the source is “acting against type,” I was particularly and pleasantly surprised to find Section 335 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018 which was adopted by the US House and US Senate and signed by President Trump in November 2017 (3 months ago). It is cut and pasted below and provides strong evidence that the Congress and the Defense Department (including current SecDef and Chair of the Joint Chiefs) believe climate change is a major security threat. See below. FWIW, I sought to avoid “overclaiming” in the debate: climate change seems to me unlikely to be the primary cause of war in the next 100 years (I fear religion, race, and politics will continue to cause most wars) and that those people who are not forced to migrate by climate changes will, if they have the resources and opportunity, adapt in place (see Koubi and Bernauer’s recent piece <https://www.ethz.ch/en/news-and-events/eth-news/news/2018/02/bernauer-koubi-climate-change-migration.html> ). Best, Ron National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018 https://www.congress.gov/115/bills/hr2810/BILLS-115hr2810enr.pdf SEC. 335. REPORT ON EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE. (a) FINDINGS .—Congress makes the following findings: (1) Secretary of Defense James Mattis has stated: ‘‘It is appropriate for the Combatant Commands to incorporate drivers of instability that impact the security environment in their areas into their planning.’’. (2) Secretary of Defense James Mattis has stated: ‘‘I agree that the effects of a changing climate — such as increased maritime access to the Arctic, rising sea levels, desertification, among others — impact our security situation.’’. (3) Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford has stated: ‘‘It’s a question, once again, of being forward deployed, forward engaged, and be in a position to respond to the kinds of natural disasters that I think we see as a second or third order effect of climate change.’’. (4) Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has stated: ‘‘Over the next 20 years and more, certain pressures-population, energy, climate, economic, environmental-could combine with rapid cultural, social, and technological change to produce new sources of deprivation, rage, and instability.’’. (5) Former Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army Gordon Sullivan has stated: ‘‘Climate change is a national security issue. We found that climate instability will lead to instability in geo- politics and impact American military operations around the world.’’. (6) The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) has stated: ‘‘Many countries will encounter climate- induced disruptions—such as weather-related disasters, drought, famine, or damage to infrastructure—that stress their capacity to respond, cope with, or adapt. Climate-related impacts will also contribute to increased migration, which can be particularly disruptive if, for example, demand for food and shelter outstrips the resources available to assist those in need.’’. (7) The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has stated: ‘‘DOD links changes in precipitation patterns with potential climate change impacts such as changes in the number of consecutive days of high or low precipitation as well as increases in the extent and duration of droughts, with an associated increase in the risk of wildfire. . . this may result in mission vulnerabilities such as reduced live-fire training due to drought and increased wildfire risk.’’. (8) A three-foot rise in sea levels will threaten the operations of more than 128 United States military sites, and it is possible that many of these at-risk bases could be sub- merged in the coming years. (9) As global temperatures rise, droughts and famines can lead to more failed states, which are breeding grounds of extremist and terrorist organizations. (10) In the Marshall Islands, an Air Force radar installation built on an atoll at a cost of $1,000,000,000 is projected to be underwater within two decades. (11) In the western United States, drought has amplified the threat of wildfires, and floods have damaged roads, run- ways, and buildings on military bases. (12) In the Arctic, the combination of melting sea ice, thawing permafrost, and sea-level rise is eroding shorelines, which is damaging radar and communication installations, run- ways, seawalls, and training areas. (13) In the Yukon Training Area, units conducting artillery training accidentally started a wildfire despite observing the necessary practices during red flag warning conditions. (b) SENSE OF CONGRESS .—It is the sense of Congress that— (1) climate change is a direct threat to the national security of the United States and is impacting stability in areas of the world both where the United States Armed Forces are operating today, and where strategic implications for future conflict exist; (2) there are complexities in quantifying the cost of climate change on mission resiliency, but the Department of Defense must ensure that it is prepared to conduct operations both today and in the future and that it is prepared to address the effects of a changing climate on threat assessments, resources, and readiness; and (3) military installations must be able to effectively prepare to mitigate climate damage in their master planning and infra- structure planning and design, so that they might best consider the weather and natural resources most pertinent to them. (c) R EPORT .— (1) REPORT REQUIRED .—Not later than one year after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to the Committees on Armed Services of the Senate and the House of Representatives a report on vulnerabilities to military installations and combatant commander requirements resulting from climate change over the next 20 years. (2) ELEMENTS .—The report on vulnerabilities to military installations and combatant commander requirements required by paragraph (1) shall include the following: A) A list of the ten most vulnerable military installations within each service based on the effects of rising sea tides, increased flooding, drought, desertification, wildfires, thawing permafrost, and any other categories the Secretary determines necessary. (B) An overview of mitigations that may be necessary to ensure the continued operational viability and to increase the resiliency of the identified vulnerable military installations and the cost of such mitigations. (C) A discussion of the climate-change related effects on the Department, including the increase in the frequency of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief missions and the theater campaign plans, contingency plans, and global posture of the combatant commanders. (D) An overview of mitigations that may be necessary to ensure mission resiliency and the cost of such mitigations. (3) FORM .—The report required under paragraph (1) shall be submitted in unclassified form, but may contain a classified annex. From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Stacy VanDeveer Sent: Monday, February 26, 2018 5:00 AM To: Gep-Ed <[email protected]>; GGHS Enviro/SustDev <[email protected]> Subject: [gep-ed] FW: [CSAG] Fwd: For Immediate Release: A Responsibility to Prepare - New Reports Released by Military and National Security Leaders on Climate Risks and Solutions ---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Francesco Femia < <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]> Date: Mon, Feb 26, 2018 at 6:00 AM Subject: For Immediate Release: A Responsibility to Prepare - New Reports Released by Military and National Security Leaders on Climate Risks and Solutions To: Francesco Femia < <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]> The Center for Climate and Security For Immediate Release: February 26, 2018 Contact: Francesco “Frank” Femia, <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected], <tel:(571)%20263-5691> +1-571-263-5691 Release: A Responsibility to Prepare - New Reports Released by Military and National Security Leaders on Climate Risks and Solutions Washington, DC – On Capitol Hill today, two nonpartisan groups of senior military and national security experts facilitated by the <https://climateandsecurity.org> Center for Climate and Security (CCS) released reports identifying rapidly-growing risks to national security due to climate change, and urging the U.S. government to take those risks seriously (click <http://www.eesi.org/livecast> here for a livestream of the release event, beginning at 9:30am EST). The reports include the <http://www.climateandsecurity.org/militaryexpertpanel2018> 2nd Edition of CCS’s Military Expert Panel Report: Sea Level Rise and the U.S. Military’s Mission and the <http://www.climateandsecurity.org/csagrecommendations2018> Climate and Security Advisory Group’s Roadmap and Recommendations for the U.S. Government which outlines a “ <http://www.climateandsecurity.org/csagrecommendations2018> Responsibility to Prepare” framework for the U.S. government. <https://climateandsecurity.org/militaryexpertpanel2018> Risks: Military Expert Panel Report, Sea Level Rise and the U.S. Military’s Mission, 2nd Edition The <http://www.climateandsecurity.org> Center for Climate and Security’s Military Expert Panel, including senior retired flag and general officers from each of the Armed Services, <http://www.climateandsecurity.org/militaryexpertpanel2018> issued the 2nd edition of a report concluding that sea level rise risks to coastal military installations will present serious risks to military readiness, operations and strategy, underscoring a ‘responsibility to prepare.’ The report includes new information regarding military installation vulnerabilities, including to the energy and transportation infrastructure that these installations depend on, showing significant and even potentially catastrophic risks to high-value military sites. “This report update asks the questions: 'How bad could it be, could we operate through that, and if not...then what?' The answer is that climate change is already presenting significant risks to military infrastructure, will continue to do so throughout this century, and if we don't make some changes, will make the military's job much harder. The next questions to answer are: 'How long will it take to prepare for these risks, and how much will that cost?' It's past time we answer these questions, and start making the necessary investments. From a military perspective, we have a responsibility to prepare for this threat, just as we do other threats to national security.” – General Ronald Keys, USAF (Ret), Member of the Military Expert Panel, the Center for Climate and Security “The Department of Defense intuitively understands it has a ‘responsibility to prepare’ for sea level rise, increased storm surges, wildfires and other climate change-related effects. Risks to military readiness, operations and strategy are concrete and already occurring. The military's practical, clear-eyed and consistent approach to this challenge, across both Republican and Democratic Administrations, is a testament to its apolitical nature, and should pave the way for a continued bipartisan path forward on addressing the security risks of climate change.” – Heather Messera, Military Expert Panel Chair, <http://www.climateandsecurity.org/> the Center for Climate and Security “Sea Level Rise and extreme weather adaptation and resilience for the Department of Defense requires a “whole of government and community” approach, both inside and outside the fence line, across the full extent of federal, state, local government and society writ large. DoD takes this 'responsibility to prepare' seriously – the threat is real – but it can’t do it alone, and it has no time to waste.” – Rear Admiral Ann C. Phillips, USN (Ret), Member of the Military Expert Panel, the Center for Climate and Security “Planning military infrastructure without considering climate change, especially coastal infrastructure and sea-level rise, is akin to steaming a ship into port without considering the water depths on the chart. We’re smarter than that, and we must demonstrate it. Our military prides itself on information based decision-making at every level, from the tactical to the strategic, and the decisions involving climate change are no different. Just like we do with navigation charts, we must consistently demand and invest in better information to inform our decisions, but as indicated in this report, the information at hand is clear and compelling – we are not sailing blindly! With that information at hand, we have a clear responsibility to prepare for this risk.” – Rear Admiral Jonathan White, USN (Ret), Member of the Military Expert Panel, the Center for Climate and Security "Sea level rise is threatening our coastal installations and can jeopardize their ability to carry out their essential missions. To fulfill a responsibility to prepare, these installations and their neighboring civilian communities must be supported in their efforts to adapt their critical infrastructure over time to meet these growing challenges." - Brigadier General Gerald Galloway, USA (Ret), Member of the Military Expert Panel, the Center for Climate and Security "Basing, living and responding in zones impacted by sea level rise and more frequent and severe weather events requires increased strategic diligence across all the stakeholders that sustain the resilience or our armed forces and first responders. We have a responsibility to our armed forces, and the nation, to prepare for these risks." - Vice Admiral Robert Parker, USCG (Ret), Member of the Military Expert Panel, the Center for Climate and Security The report asserts that policies for addressing climate change risks must go beyond military infrastructure resilience, to include the resilience of surrounding civilian infrastructure, as well as the resilience of military operations and strategy in the face of these rapid changes. The authors recommend that policy-makers support comprehensive measures to address increasing risks from sea level rise. Recommendations include: * Identify and build capacity to address infrastructural, operational and strategic risks; * Integrate climate impact scenarios and projections into regular planning cycles; * Make climate-related decisions that incorporate the entire spectrum of risk projections; * Model catastrophic scenarios and incorporate into planning and war gaming; * Maintain close collaboration with adjacent civilian communities; * Invest in improvements in climate data and analysis. The Panel includes retired flag and general officers from across the Armed Services: General Ronald Keys, USAF (Ret), Lieutenant General John Castellaw, USMC (Ret), Vice Admiral Robert Parker, USCG (Ret), Rear Admiral Ann Phillips, USN (Ret), Rear Admiral Jonathan White, USN (Ret) and Brigadier General Gerald Galloway, USA (Ret). <https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/climate-and-security-advisory-group_2018-cover-photo.png?w=229> Solutions: Climate and Security Advisory Group Roadmap and Recommendations for the U.S. Government, A Responsibility to Prepare <http://www.climateandsecurity.org/csagrecommendations2018> The Climate and Security Advisory Group (CSAG), a bipartisan group of fifty-four military, national security and foreign policy experts chaired by the <http://www.climateandsecurity.org/> Center for Climate and Security and the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, <http://www.climateandsecurity.org/csagrecommendations2018> released a roadmap and recommendations titled A Responsibility to Prepare: Strengthening National and Homeland Security in the Face of a Changing Climate. The report calls on the Administration to follow the advice of Defense Secretary James Mattis, who asserted that a "whole-of-government response" to climate change is needed, not least as it is “impacting stability in areas of the world where our troops are operating today.” “Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis has called for a whole-of-government response to climate change, joining a long list of defense and intelligence leaders going back to the George W. Bush Administration. This ‘responsibility to prepare’ report presents a roadmap for beginning to achieve that goal. – Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell, Co-Presidents, The Center for Climate and Security “Our nation’s military leaders recognize their responsibility to prepare our forces and bases for the climate risks affecting us today, from the rising sea levels at Norfolk/Hampton Roads VA to Parris Island SC– the Marines’ premier recruit training facility, to increased demand for our forces to respond to wildfires, floods, and hurricanes across the nation. This roadmap and recommendation are designed to help America’s military maintain their readiness by assessing and preparing for climate risks to our force and base structure.” – Sherri Goodman, Senior Advisor for International Security, The Center for Climate and Security “There is an abundance of climate-related data that is of significant concern to our country’s national security. Numerous studies by retired military and national security officials have analyzed these data and concluded that, regardless of the cause, US government multi-agency action is needed now to mitigate these effects of an adversely changing climate.” – Admiral Frank “Skip” Bowman, Advisory Board, the Center for Climate and Security The group’s report notes that given the threats of climate change identified by the defense, national security and intelligence communities, a rise in destructive climate-driven impacts on the U.S., and an increased capacity to foresee these risks, the U.S. government has a “Responsibility to Prepare” to address these challenges at home and abroad. Specifically, the group recommended that the Administration do so through three lines of effort: Assess, Prepare, and Support. * Assess climate change risks to national and homeland security Maintain and improve systems and processes for better understanding and assessing climate change risks to national and homeland security. * Prepare for climate change risks to national and homeland security Bolster the resilience of critical military and civilian infrastructure to climate change risks, and better organize and resource the U.S. government to manage those risks. * Support allied and partner nation resilience to climate change risks Maintain U.S. leadership by supporting allied and partner nation resilience to climate change risks in strategically-significant regions, and by reducing climate drivers of instability. To watch the release event live at 9:30am EST on February 26, click <http://www.eesi.org/livecast> here See below for links to the full reports. Military Expert Panel Report: Sea Level Rise and the U.S. Military’s Mission: <http://www.climateandsecurity.org/militaryexpertpanel2018> www.climateandsecurity.org/militaryexpertpanel2018 CSAG Roadmap and Recommendations for the U.S. Government “A Responsibility to Prepare”: <http://www.climateandsecurity.org/csagrecommendations2018> www.climateandsecurity.org/csagrecommendations2018 The online version of this press release can be found here: <http://climateandsecurity.org/2018/02/26/release-a-responsibility-to-prepare-military-and-national-security-leaders-release-new-reports-on-climate-change-and-what-to-do-about-it> http://climateandsecurity.org/2018/02/26/release-a-responsibility-to-prepare-military-and-national-security-leaders-release-new-reports-on-climate-change-and-what-to-do-about-it ### The <https://climateandsecurity.org/> Center for Climate and Security (CCS) is a non-partisan security policy institute with a distinguished Advisory Board of military, national security and foreign policy experts. -- Francesco "Frank" Femia Co-President The Center for Climate and Security 1025 Connecticut Ave NW, Suite 1000 Washington, DC 20036 <http://www.climateandsecurity.org> www.climateandsecurity.org (t) <tel:(202)%20246-8612> 202-246-8612 (e) <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected] Skype: francesco.femia73 Twitter: <https://twitter.com/CntrClimSec> @CntrClimSec ------ This e-mail is intended solely for the addressee(s) named herein and may contain confidential information. -- Francesco "Frank" Femia Co-President The Center for Climate and Security 1025 Connecticut Ave NW, Suite 1000 Washington, DC 20036 <http://www.climateandsecurity.org> www.climateandsecurity.org (t) 202-246-8612 (e) <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected] Skype: francesco.femia73 Twitter: <https://twitter.com/CntrClimSec> @CntrClimSec ------ This e-mail is intended solely for the addressee(s) named herein and may contain confidential information. -- This e-mail is intended solely for members of the CSAG and may contain confidential information. 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