Jim Torson wrote:
> THE THREAT TO THE PLANET
> By Jim Hansen
> The New York Review of Books
> Volume 53, Number 12
> July 13, 2006
>
> http://www.nybooks.com/articles/19131
>
> "The business-as-usual scenario, with five degrees Fahrenheit global warming
> and ten degrees Fahrenheit at the ice sheets, certainly would cause the
> disintegration of ice sheets. The only question is when the collapse of
> these sheets would begin.
<...>
> The alternative scenario, with global
> warming under two degrees Fahrenheit, still produces a significant rise in
> the sea level, but its slower rate, probably less than a few feet per
> century, would allow time to develop strategies that would adapt to, and
> mitigate, the rise in the sea level."
Can someone help me map these scenarios onto the IPCC scenarios? When
he says "business as usual", is he referring to IS92a? When he says
"the alternative scenario", is he referring to IS92c?
What about IS92e and f, which have much higher cumulative emissions
than IS92a - has anyone generated warming predictions for those
scenarios yet? Did Hansen address those fossil-intensive alternative
scenarios? It is not inconceivable that we'll stray in that direction.
Is there a single source to look up the projected warming trajectories
associated with the IPCC scenarios (i.e. volume & chapter of the TAR?)
It would seem a shame if all the effort put into developing the large
family of SRES emission scenarios has not been (or will not be) fed
into the climate models.
An earlier thread talked about the possibility of doing interactive
modeling with feedbacks between the economy and climate system. A
first step would seem to be to take the emissions scenarios and feed
them into climate models - has it been done yet? (Last time I checked
in the late 1990's Hadley had run one model on IS92a, and that was
about it. Are there more of these scenario-driven runs published now?
Where?)
Thanks,
-dl
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