Alastair McDonald wrote:
> James, what levels of CO2 do you think we should not exceed, bearing in
> mind that at 380 ppm the Greenland ice sheet is already starting to melt,
> hurricanes are starting to intensify, and forest fires are raging throughout
> the world?
I think that under any reasonably comprehensive assessment of global
change, the AGW-induced change will, in the long term, be close to
logarithmic in the concentration of CO2 (assuming some rough
stabilisation). I don't have much idea for an "optimal" trajectory of
CO2 into the future given the various competing demands, but I do think
that it would be sensible to work significantly harder towards limiting
emissions than we are currently doing. Personally, I would start with a
revenue-neutral carbon tax, which seems like a complete no-brainer which
would steer the market in the right direction without the need for
excessive red tape and regulation. If I were king for a day, I'd do that
within the UK even without international co-operation, as I am sure that
the long-term benefits (eg energy efficiency/independence, development
of world-leader status in new technology) would be substantial. But
unfortunately the concept of a "new tax" (even one that simply replaces
old taxes) is electoral suicide given a brain-dead electorate and
dishonest media.
I see no sign, or even hint, or even hypothesis, which supports the
claim of "a step change in the rate of global warming" at 440ppm or any
other level, which is the quote with which I started this thread. But
maybe in 1000 years, Greenland will be green and Londoners will have gills.
James
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