Eric, Thanks for those links. Here is a prediction from the US Navy, that
I've copied from RealClimate.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/09/weekly-round-up/#comment-19057
Cheers, Alastair.
Abstract -- because I think it's important and to the Navy's credit it has
the resources to do this sort of modeling, and succeed:
Date: Mar 2006
Author: T. McNamara
This thesis provides an analysis of the diminishing sea ice trend in the
Arctic Ocean by examining the NPS 1/12-degree pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean
model. While many previous studies have analyzed changes in ice extent and
concentration, this research focuses on ice thickness as it gives a better
indication of ice volume variability. The skill of the model is examined by
comparing its output to sea ice thickness data gathered during the last two
decades. The first dataset used is the collection of draft measurements
conducted by U.S. Navy submarines between 1986 and 1999. The second is
electromagnetic (EM) induction ice thickness measurements gathered using a
helicopter by the Alfred Wegener Institute in April 2003. Last, model output
is compared with data collected by NASA's ICESat program using a laser
altimeter mounted on a satellite of the same name. The NPS model indicates
an accelerated thinning trend in Arctic sea ice during the last decade. The
validation of model output with submarine, EM and ICESat data supports this
result. This lends credence to the postulation that the Arctic not only
might, but is likely to be ice-free during the summer in the near future.
Comment by Hank Roberts - 14 Sep 2006 @ 2:09 pm
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