Okay, that study is in fact working as a download, it's very slow, from
the "Bosun" thesis archive as linked above. Look at:
Figure 34. Arctic ice thickness over time from the NPS model. This
plot shows ice thickness in meters versus time in red. The overall
mean for the period shown is in green. The 13-month running mean is
in black. The blue line shows the strong decreasing trend in ice
thickness beginning in 1997. Areas with ice concentration less than
15% were excluded from the calculations. [After Maslowski 2006]
Figure 35. Arctic ice volume over time from the NPS model. Ice
area in km 3 x 104 versus time is in red. The overall mean for the
period shown is in green, the 13month running mean in black. The blue
line shows the strong decreasing trend in both ice area and thickness
beginning in 1997. Areas with ice concentration less than 15% were
excluded from the calculations. [After Maslowski 2006]
....
Assuming we continue to have extremely low ice extents, and that the
decreasing ice thickness trend continues, the Arctic could be ice-free
in summertime within a decade (Maslowski, 2006).
(The cited source, (2006, Maslowski, Wieslaw) was unpublished at the
time the thesis was completed early this year -- I first started
looking into the Navy grad school info after seeing a report the Navy
was soon going to publish research along these lines, so it may well be
in press or in the pipeline by now. Perhaps some of the experts can
look.)
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