Hello James,
I've not noticed the 'onward march of Maize', here in Lancashire.
However in view of the mild weather we've been having it seems
reasonable that this could change the practicalities and economics of
what crops to grow. This year really has been noticeably exceptional
(damned awful I hate hot weather). And when it finally went back to
seasonal norms a few weeks ago it was very noticeable. I couldn't get
away with just a T-shirt when walking to work in the morning.
I have to agree with what you say, although I still think we don't know
enough to blithely continue with what we're doing.
Whilst I accept the models' ability to hindcast gross global average
temperature as being an incredible display that they work. My main
concerns are that the models seem to have some issues with reproduction
of fine scale changes, and the danger of feedbacks that we have not
modelled. What current local variance from projections may signal the
start of deviation from what we expect?
Furthermore, as we've not had the chance to model the process we're
unwittingly (witlessly?) engaging in. And as the forcing changes from
CO2 are so fast compared to our best analogy - glacial/interglacial, I
keep thinking custard! To be precise the counterintuitive way that you
can stir the custard powder/sugar mix: slowly it's a liquid, fast it's
a solid. I undertsand that there are disparate physical process behind
both custard and climate that lead to the observed behaviours. But I
don't like the idea of radidly forcing something as critical as our
climate
Whilst I appreciate and agree with the apparent stance of RealClimate
against all this media hype about 'tipping points'. I just can't shake
the concern that the pace of change is dangerous in a complex highly
connected system like our atmosphere. And at 36% above pre-industrial
CO2, considering the 'transient response lag', although it must be a
blip on top of the overall trend. I still feel disquiet about our
British summer being 2degC above average.
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