Some time ago James Annan wibbled:
This, I think, allows be to introduce an egregious (but all too typical)
bit of cherry picking - or should I call it rotten apple picking - in
the news today.
The UNDP's new "Human Development Report" is out, and on the BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/sci/tech/6126242.stm
you can see the reproduced graphic which paints a picture of reduced
crop yields in Africa, along with the title "Projected impact of climate
change on cereal productivity in Africa." Substantial areas show large
drops of 25% or more "by 2080".
[...]
Incidentally, according to the paper, the reduction in yield and
accompanying increase in hunger should be roughly linear with time/CO2
concentration, which suggests that it should perhaps be visible by now
if it is a real effect (I don't know about interannual variability or
quality of data collection though). Anyone know if there are data
supporting this?
Well, leafing through an old NewScientist, I find the following:
<http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10293-more-crops-for-africa-as-trees-reclaim-the-desert.html>
also mentioned here:
<http://biopact.com/2006/10/reclaiming-desert-acacia-turns-sahel.html>
wherein it is described that yield increases of a minimum of 20%, up to
a maximum of 300% have been achieved by reforestation of near-desert
in an extremely poor area of Africa.
In their report for the Stern review, the Tyndall Centre basically
assumed that adaptation to climate change would not be possible in poor
areas (specifically because they are too poor). Yet here we have cheap
and effective adaptation over the last 20 years that comfortably makes
up for the projected losses in the most extreme model under the most
extreme scenario tested in that UN report.
Hmmmmm.
James
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