And as importantly, I hadn't actually looked carefully enough to see
that you were plotting a 2 year average!
Does this make the acceleration look more or less convincing? What did
you assume before and what should I do?
What is the volatility of the 3 year trend in the historic data?
See
http://www.boincforum.info/boincuser/Crandles/IceExtentGraphFitsConfidenceD063Yr.PNG
Any justification for this?
Justification for "I would have thought that by now further
acceleration was more likely than it being due to
an oscillation.":
I would have thought 7.48 or 8.96 standard deviations would speak for
itself though I have no idea what sort of calculations I should be
doing.
I also thought MT put it quite well in saying:
"It doesn't look like an oscillation in the record. Is there some
physical or statistical basis for arguing that the sea ice extent will
bounce back to the twenty-year trend line? Or even that the slope will
bounce back? I am inclined to say not."
Obviously me not being able to think of a reason is rather less
persuasive than MT saying it.
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