crandles wrote:
A bit off topic, but I'll also give a link to
http://www.boincforum.info/boincuser/Crandles/IceExtent&ChangesGraph.PNG
in case anyone else has been confused by the way graphs are normally
plotted in % per decade terms and the summer months percentage per
decade is much higher than that for winter months.
I'd expect it to trade at 80 or so. Note that is not my estimate of the
fair price, but rather my answer to your question :-)
OK, so what is your estimate of the fair price?
Probably close to whatever corresponds to a continuation of the recent
trend, which was 60, I think. But I don't know much about sea ice and
really have no strong feelings about to what extent the latest decrease
is forced or random.
(I'm sure you don't mean to dichotomize between a natural oscillation vs
forced response - in general, it is a combination of both.)
Yes quite. But if 7.48 standard deviations was enough to persuade me
that something has happened, that doesn't tell me what has happened.
I then want to make my best estimate of the new rate. Does that involve
saying that some of the explanation is from a natural oscillation or do
I say I don't know what phase any oscillation is in (it could be
reducing or making the anomaly look worse) so do I just use a straight
fit on the recent data as my best estimate?
In the absence of a better model, it would probably be a reasonable
choice - although you'd still want to think about what interval to take
the straight line over.
James
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