Following the recent local news hits from the record-breaking hot days in
January, I've been investigating what our current understanding of the
relationship between ENSO and global warming.
It seems that the best summary is "We don't understand ENSO well enough to
say anything definitively."
Some models have shown CO2 forcing to increase the frequency of El Nino
events, some haven't. Some models end up with permanent El Nino-like
conditions.
Is that a fair uber-reductive summary? Are there any coupled GCMs that
successfully model ENSO?
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