James Annan wrote:
Raymond Arritt wrote:
The Cunctator wrote:
Is that a fair uber-reductive summary? Are there any coupled GCMs that
successfully model ENSO?
There's a guy named Geert-Jan van Oldenborgh who has been doing some
work on this. Last year he had a paper that analyzed ENSO in the IPCC
AR4 models. I don't have the paper handy at the moment but recall
that only a few models (six?) reproduced ENSO well. Several
reproduced parts of ENSO but missed some features, such as temperature
skewness.
http://www.knmi.nl/publications/fulltexts/os181.pdf
looks like it should be relevant (I've not read it)
Or more usefully:
http://www.ocean-sci.net/1/81/2005/os-1-81-2005.html
"Over the period 2051-2100 (under various scenarios) the most realistic
six models show either no change in the mean state or a slight shift
towards El Niño-like conditions with an amplitude at most a quarter of
the present day interannual standard deviation. We see no statistically
significant changes in amplitude of ENSO variability in the future, with
changes in the standard deviation of a Southern Oscillation Index that
are no larger than observed decadal variations. Uncertainties in the
skewness of the variability are too large to make any statements about
the future relative strength of El Niño and La Niña events. Based on
this analysis of the multi-model ensemble, we expect very little
influence of global warming on ENSO."
James
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