William M Connolley wrote:
On Mon, 15 Jan 2007, James Annan wrote:
(actually, that was me quoting Kooiti Masuda, but never mind)
After all, we cannot simply assume that future generations are richer,
And yet this *is* the assumption that all the economic modelling makes.
And it
is supported by historical trends. Barring catastrophe, is there a
plausible
reason for it to be wrong (presumably in cash-type terms, interpreting
"richer"
literally)?
The Stern report ends up deciding that a potential loss of 20% of future
consumption would be very bad, which is a loss on top of considerable
gains. If
you can plausibly assert that we wouldn't be richer at all, then in
Stern terms
this is a complete disaster, with or without climate change.
I suspect that a large part of the general population is substantially
confused on this point, and I have to wonder if some of it is
deliberate. The presentation of much of this impacts stuff (especially,
but not solely, Stern) is in terms of "losses". I've even seen the term
"recession" widely used:
<http://www.google.co.jp/search?q=recession+stern+climate>
"catastrophic global recession", even - and explicit links to the Wall
Street Crash and Great Depression.
However, in none of the projections and estimates is there actually any
situation in which the global economy shrinks, or comes close to it. His
standard estimate of a 5% cost of climate change actually means a growth
rate of 2.25% pa rather than 2.3% over the next 100 years. Sure, that
compounds to a 5% gap - people being only 9.5 times as rich rather than
10 times.
But tell me, seriously, even if it is true, am I supposed to care about
that?
Have all the environmental activists who seized upon Stern with such
glee really now decided that our lives should be devoted to maximising
economic growth after all? Somehow, I doubt it. Strange bedfellows indeed...
James
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