Eric Swanson wrote:
I don't think it makes much odds, but yield seems most logical.
Yeild is a particularly difficult variable to assess, given that we
know how to increase yields for many crops thru the use of various
energy intensive techniques.
You will of course have noted in the link I provided how the energy
efficiency of US agriculture has increased markedly in recent decades.
In the presence of increasing fuel prices, you can be sure it will
continue to improve.
Nevertheless, the predictions of doom and gloom are predicated not only
on an inability to increase yields through technological and economic
progress (even the transfer of existing technology, let alone new
developments), but even an inability to mitigate the supposed "losses"
due to climate changes. Eg see Rachel Warren's report on impacts for Stern.
However, the figures for the increased "population at risk" depends on a
fast-growing population, with rapid economic growth to drive the rise in
emissions. Do I need to explicitly point out the logical disconnect here?
From an economic and social point
of view, a more appropriate metric might be production per capita, as
it is to be hoped that food production will increase along with
increasing population.
Well, that is surely a stiffer hurdle, but I do agree it would seem more
relevant to human welfare. History suggests that it is likely to be a
pretty safe bet, but OTOH there are some areas which are pretty much
maxed out in terms of caloric intake and here a reduction in food
production (at least, consumption) would be a benefit rather than a
loss. Anyway, my complaint is primarily with those who have clearly
asserted that yields are going to go down due to climate change.
James
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