Eric Swanson wrote:
James Annan wrote:
>
> > After all, we cannot simply assume that future generations are richer,
> > or more adaptable.
>
> Well if we do not get richer rapidly and keep on increasing GHG
> emissions then the rate of climate change will tail off substantially in
> any case... (and certainly will not accelerate, which is the assumption
> underlying Stern).
>
> I conclude that neither climate change nor energy costs are going to
> prevent crop yields increasing for the foreseeable future over any
> reasonably broad scales and would happily bet on that proposition. Any
> takers?
Is your bet to be based on crop yields or total crop production? If
it's the latter, then there may be some unforseen bumps in the road.
Just today, for example, there's a major cold outbreak over the Western
U.S. and the news tells us that:
"In California, three nights of freezing temperatures have destroyed up
to three-quarters of California's $1 billion citrus crop, according to
an estimate issued Monday. Other crops, including avocados and
strawberries, also suffered damage."
So much for the fresh produce from the Central Valley until the next
crop comes in. the freeze also hit Arizona as well, which is another
area of citrus production. This reminds me of the freezes in the early
1980's, which destroyed much of Florida's citrus crop, killing the
trees as well. Similar impacts were felt in Texas. We've had late
freezes in my area over the past few years as well. A couple of years
ago, the trees were fully leafed and a hard freeze killed almost all
the foliage. It looked like the Fall colors had returned, only it was
May. Also, some models have suggested that the American Great Plains
will experience more frequent drought, which will cut into the
production of corn and wheat.
U.S. corn production is an example of optimization intended to maximize
yield. Other regions may not be so hospitable for corn production and
thus may not substitute for any loss in U.S. production. Consider this
example of requirements for corn production:
http://www.ces.purdue.edu/extmedia/NCH/NCH-40.html
Notice that there is a sharp dividing line in precipitation roughly
along the 100 degree meridian in Figure 4.
Figure 8, you mean?
I does Canada (off the map) figure in to this?
---
Away, away, away down South...
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