At 07:50 AM 6/10/2007, Eric Swanson wrote: >I saw the movie "The End of Suburbia" a few weeks ago. That movie >puts our situation in stark terms. When Peak Oil arrives (if it >hasn't already), the American Lifestyle is going to go into a serious >nosedive.
Thanks for the links to the recent Matt Simmons presentations. I recently watched (online) the video "Crude." I had previously seen "End of Suburbia" and had read quite a bit about Peak Oil, but I found "Crude" to be a lot more interesting that I had expected. It appears that perhaps global warming could lead to conditions that result in the formation of new oil deposits. However, this would take millions of years and conditions on the Earth would be rather unpleasant while we're waiting for the new oil. -------- http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/6/2/213424/4191 On the unity between peak oil and climate destabilization Posted by <http://gristmill.grist.org/user/JMG>JMG at 6:14 PM on 03 Jun 2007 <http://www.abc.net.au/science/crude/>Crude: a great overview of how, when, where, and why oil is obtained, and a fascinating look at what happens when you burn a bunch of it real fast. Think <http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/9/15/23589/1860>The End of Suburbia meets <http://www.grist.org/advice/books/2006/05/24/roberts/index.html>An Inconvenient Truth. --------- One of the people interviewed in "Crude" is Jeremy Leggett. (The website includes an extended interview with him.) Here's a very interesting article that he wrote: ---------- http://environment.independent.co.uk/article339928.ece What they don't want you to know about the coming oil crisis Soaring fuel prices, rumours of winter power cuts, panic over the gas supply from Russia, abrupt changes to forecasts of crude output... Is something sinister going on? Yes, says former oil man Jeremy Leggett, and it's time to face the fact that the supplies we so depend on are going to run out <big snip> Adapted from "Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis", by Jeremy Leggett (Portobello Books, £12.99). To order a copy for the special price of £11.99 (inc P&P), call Independent Books Direct on 08700 798 8897 ------------- In September 2005 I attended a presentation by Richard Heinberg. Here is an excerpt from a newsletter on his website that refers to a report on the subject of Peak Oil prepared for the US Department of Energy: ------- What if forecasts of a near-term peak in global oil production are wrong? Won't there be a cost to preparing for the oil peak too early? In practical terms, won't this mean voluntarily choking off economic growth? Because so much is at stake, it is important that these vital questions be addressed not just by partisan participants in the debate over the timing of the oil-production peak (the so- called "oil optimists" and the "oil pessimists"); some independent assessment is required of the costs of preparing too soon versus the costs of preparing too late. Fortunately, such an assessment has already been undertaken - "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management," a Report prepared by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) for the US Department of Energy, released in February 2005, and authored principally by Robert L. Hirsch (hereinafter referred to as "the SAIC Report"). The SAIC Report concludes that substantial mitigation of the economic, social, and political impacts of Peak Oil can come only from efforts both to increase energy supplies from alternative sources and to reduce demand for oil. With regard to the claim that efficiency measures will be enough to forestall dire impacts, Hirsch et al. note that, "While greater end-use efficiency is essential, increased efficiency alone will be neither sufficient nor timely enough to solve the problem. Production of large amounts of substitute liquid fuels will be required." Further, "Mitigation will require a minimum of a decade of intense, expensive effort, because the scale of liquid fuels mitigation is inherently extremely large." Hirsch, et al., also point out that "The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past 'energy crisis' experience will provide relatively little guidance." The SAIC Report agrees that mitigation efforts undertaken too soon would exact a cost on society. However, it concludes that, "If peaking is imminent, failure to initiate timely mitigation could be extremely damaging. Prudent risk management requires the planning and implementation of mitigation well before peaking. Early mitigation will almost certainly be less expensive than delayed mitigation." <snip> Why can't the market take care of the problem? Won't high prices stimulate more exploration and the development of alternatives? Wouldn't interference with market mechanisms be harmful? The SAIC Report's authors dismiss the claim that the market will solve any shortage problems arising from global oil production peak, with higher oil prices stimulating investments in alternative energy sources, more efficient cars, and so on. Price signals warn only of immediate scarcity. However, the mitigation efforts needed in order to prepare for the global oil production peak and thus to head off shortages and price spikes must be undertaken many years in advance of the event. Hirsch, et al., maintain that, "Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic. The experiences of the 1970s and 1980s offer important guides as to government actions that are desirable and those that are undesirable, but the process will not be easy." ----------- The SAIC Report is available on-line here: http://www.mnforsustain.org/oil_peaking_of_world_oil_production_study_hirsch.htm It is available as a PDF file here: http://www.hilltoplancers.org/stories/hirsch0502.pdf The Heinberg newsletter quoted above is available here: http://www.richardheinberg.com/archive/160.html Jim --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. 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