Jim Torson wrote: > At 07:50 AM 6/10/2007, Eric Swanson wrote: > > >I saw the movie "The End of Suburbia" a few weeks ago. That movie > >puts our situation in stark terms. When Peak Oil arrives (if it > >hasn't already), the American Lifestyle is going to go into a serious > >nosedive. > > Thanks for the links to the recent Matt Simmons presentations.
> > Because so much is at stake, it is important that these vital > questions be addressed not just by partisan participants in the > debate over the timing of the oil-production peak (the so- > called "oil optimists" and the "oil pessimists"); some > independent assessment is required of the costs of preparing > too soon versus the costs of preparing too late. > > Fortunately, such an assessment has already been > undertaken - "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, > Mitigation, & Risk Management," a Report prepared by > Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) for > the US Department of Energy, released in February 2005, > and authored principally by Robert L. Hirsch (hereinafter > referred to as "the SAIC Report"). >...... Hirsch et al. note that, "While greater > end-use efficiency is essential, increased efficiency alone will > be neither sufficient nor timely enough to solve the problem. > Production of large amounts of substitute liquid fuels will be > required." Further, "Mitigation will require a minimum of a > decade of intense, expensive effort, because the scale of > liquid fuels mitigation is inherently extremely large." Hirsch, > et al., also point out that "The problems associated with > world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past > 'energy crisis' experience will provide relatively little > guidance." Yes, the two big hits in 1974-75 and 1980-81 were temporary political problems. We kept going as before after the oil flows resumed. In 1986, the Saudi's flooded the market and oil fell to less than $10 per barrel. Now it looks like it's no longer possible to dump extra production onto the market, while demand has been steadily pushing upwards. > The SAIC Report agrees that mitigation efforts undertaken > too soon would exact a cost on society. However, it > concludes that, "If peaking is imminent, failure to initiate > timely mitigation could be extremely damaging. Prudent risk > management requires the planning and implementation of > mitigation well before peaking. Early mitigation will almost > certainly be less expensive than delayed mitigation." Yes, that's the problem. If we are at the peak in conventional oil, then it's too late to avoid some massive pain because of the inherent inertia of the economy. All those gas guzzling SUV's and power cars will need to be SCRAPED, as in removed from, service, not just traded in. And, lots of structures will need basic modifications in order to become more energy efficient, but many will also be SCRAPED as too expensive to retrofit. >............ Hirsch, et al., maintain that, > "Intervention by governments will be required, because the > economic and social implications of oil peaking would > otherwise be chaotic. The experiences of the 1970s and > 1980s offer important guides as to government actions that > are desirable and those that are undesirable, but the process > will not be easy." The longer that "government" waits to deal with the Peak Oil problem, the harder it will be to put the brakes on demand. And, there are lots of groups that don't want to change things, like the car companies, etc. The U.S. Senate is beginning the debate on a new energy bill, (S. 1416. ?) The various lobby groups are out in full force: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/12/washington/12energy.html While there is hope for a rational result, I'm not holding my breath. > The SAIC Report is available on-line here: > > http://www.mnforsustain.org/oil_peaking_of_world_oil_production_study_hirsch.htm > > It is available as a PDF file here: > > http://www.hilltoplancers.org/stories/hirsch0502.pdf E. S. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
