On 25/07/07, Roger Coppock <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Hansen's "measured in metres" means two or more meters.
> That is at least 4 times what the IPCC is predicting.
> To say that ice responds nonlinearly and that things
> are accelerating is one thing, but one needs to put
> numbers to those statements. I have a very hard time
> believing Hansen's statement about sea levels at the
> end of this century.
The IPCC stated that they were being conservative and that nonlinear
effects could not be ruled out. You might also want to keep in mind
the fact that Hansen rarely makes a bet without being pretty sure he
is going to win. I also believe that he would be very good at darts.
One more point: earlier this year the IPCC projected that the Arctic
sea would not see an ice-free summer until at least 2050, and quite
well into the 2100s. Now after having examined things more closely,
one team has said 2040, and another Nasa was more recently saying
2020. It appears that the IPCC tends to be somewhat conservative in
their estimates.
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